Oxford Analytica

GULF STATES: Changing military balance GULF STATES: Increased defence spending confronts Iran The United Arab Emirates (UAE) will start taking delivery of a recently ordered new class of naval corvette from Italy#;s Fincantieri shipbuilding company in ####. The corvette

JAPAN: Landmark DPJ victory JAPAN: Major changes ahead as DPJ sweeps into power The opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) won yesterday#;s election by a landslide. For the first time in its history Japan will have a non-conservative

UNITED STATES: Healthcare debate UNITED STATES: Opinion shifts affect health debate Senator Mike Enzi, one of the Republicans attempting to forge a bipartisan health reform bill on the Senate Finance Committee, yesterday said that Democratic party proposals would make US

ICELAND: Icesave vote ICELAND: Government#;s future remains at risk Iceland#;s parliament approved a state guarantee of Icesave debts to the United Kingdom and the Netherlands with significant conditions on August ##. Iceland#;s government has been unable to

GEORGIA: South Ossetian instability GEORGIA: South Ossetia#;s joining Russia looks closer August ## was the first anniversary of Russia#;s unilateral recognition of South Ossetia as an independent state following the Russo-Georgian war. If no stable political and

PERU: Puno tensions PERU: Puno is catalyst for unresolved social tensions Political and social tensions in the frontier region of Puno. The central government is concerned that radicalism will overspill from Bolivia, exacerbating deep-rooted tensions in this poverty-stricken

AFRICA: Land deal risks AFRICA: Large foreign land deals bring security risks The risks of violence associated with increasing foreign direct investment in farmland in Africa and elsewhere in the developing world. A senior World Food Programme official warned last

LATIN AMERICA: Trade travails LATIN AMERICA: Global downturn slashes export values On August ##, the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) forecast that the value of the region#;s exports will fall by a quarter this

SOUTH-EAST ASIA: Textiles outlook SOUTH-EAST ASIA: Shake-up looms in textiles sector The outlook for the region#;s textile and garment industries. From January, this ##-billion-dollar sector will undergo significant liberalisation. However, an investment lag in

GABON: Bongo succession GABON: Ali is on track to succeed father as president Ali Ben Bongo is expected to win the presidential election on August ##. The son of late President Omar Bongo, Ali secured the backing of the ruling

INTERNATIONAL: Refining surplus INTERNATIONAL: Refiners in quandary as capacity grows Surplus oil refining sector capacity. The refinery sector no longer is a potential bottleneck supporting a high priced oil complex. As crude oil peaked in July ####, a key factor

RUSSIA: Military manning RUSSIA: Conscription reforms sap military efficiency The results and implications of the spring military call-up. Russia calls up conscripts twice a year. The spring #### draft, which took place from April #-July ##, has proved

BOLIVIA: MAS institutionalisation? BOLIVIA: MAS resists institutionalisation The nature of Bolivia#;s ruling party. The Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) is an exception among Latin American parties. After three years in office it has resisted institutionalisation, remaining an umbrella for social

EUROPEAN UNION: Migration challenges EUROPEAN UNION: Unity on migration remains unlikely Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt announced new EU migration proposals on August ##. Over the past few years, key EU member states have been pushing for a tougher approach

BRAZIL: Ports pressures BRAZIL: Ports may limit export growth ambitions The challenges facing the Brazilian ports system. Brazil#;s ## public ports handle about ##% of international trade and in the past ten years the volume and value of that

MIDDLE EAST: Fatah prospects MIDDLE EAST: Abbas manoeuvres ahead of US initiative Fatah-Hamas talks, scheduled for August ##, have been delayed until late September. The composition of the new Fatah Central Committee has brought fresh obstacles to inter-factional

UNITED STATES: Energy reform politics UNITED STATES: Energy reform will be incomplete The prospects for energy policy reform this year. The chances of Senate action on climate change legislation -- following razor-thin approval of a bill by the House of

IRAQ: Security outlook IRAQ: Security improving despite major bombings On August ##, the government suspended implementation of its decision to take down blast walls around Baghdad. August has witnessed the highest number of fatalities from bombings since May ####, raising

SOUTH AFRICA: #### World Cup SOUTH AFRICA: Government hopes for World Cup boost The outlook for the #### soccer World Cup. The World Cup, scheduled for mid-####, could make or break South Africa#;s reputation as a host for

ROMANIA: Media moguls ROMANIA: Media no longer play positive political role The influence of media trusts on the struggle for power. President Traian Basescu is under fire in the media as he faces re-election later in the year. His

UKRAINE: Insurance crisis UKRAINE: Tough times lie ahead for insurers Developments in and prospects for the domestic insurance sector. Ukraine#;s severe recession has hurt all parts of the country#;s financial system, creating serious problems not only for its

INTERNATIONAL: Cyber attacks INTERNATIONAL: Cyber attacks signal new warfare era The geopolitical impacts of cyber warfare. Cyber warfare is becoming more frequent and sophisticated, with the capacity to disrupt or disable key infrastructure, and complement existing military operations. A worldwide

PARAGUAY: First-year failings PARAGUAY: Lugo#;s first year shows few victories President Fernando Lugo#;s first year in office. Lugo#;s refusal to sign a #;democratic pact#; with Congress reflects a serious worsening of his relations with all major

ASIA: Asian Financial Stability Dialogue ASIA: Asia looks to its own financial stability Growing support for the idea of an Asian Financial Stability Dialogue. East Asia in particular wants to play a greater role in reshaping the international financial architecture

CAMBODIA: Growth and authoritarianism CAMBODIA: Opposition quelled as oil drilling advances In the latest move to silence critics, the government on August ## announced that it intends to sue a man who claimed that the death of his brother, a

INTERNATIONAL: Casino markets INTERNATIONAL: Casino markets face political backlash The outlook for casino markets in the United States, China, and Russia. After decades of rapid expansion, three of the world#;s largest casino markets -- Las Vegas, Moscow, and Macao -- are

ANGOLA/SOUTH AFRICA: Improving relations ANGOLA/SOUTH AFRICA: Zuma aims for improved relations South Africa#;s President Jacob Zuma visited Angola for talks on August ##-##. The visit was the first by a South African president since the end

UNITED STATES: Immigration reform prospects UNITED STATES: Immigration reform likely in #### The prospects for immigration policy reform. President Barack Obama maintains that immigration reform is a priority, but has indicated that legislative action is unlikely until next year. However

MOLDOVA: Marian Lupu MOLDOVA: Former Communist emerges as kingmaker A profile of former parliamentary Speaker Marian Lupu, political kingmaker and possible successor to President Vladimir Voronin. Lupu#;s defection from the Communist Party before the July snap parliamentary elections produced

ECUADOR: Correa mandate ECUADOR: Correa success depends on external factors Outlook for President Rafael Correa#;s second term. Correa has pledged to proceed with his #;revolutionary#; agenda, but largely remains hostage to external factors. In his inaugural address, President Rafael

ARGENTINA: Political football ARGENTINA: Government takes over football rights On August ##, the Argentine Football Association (AFA) signed a controversial TV contract with the state media holding. The move could lead to an escalation in the ongoing conflict between the

UNITED KINGDOM: Scottish tensions UNITED KINGDOM: Devolution is put to the test The Scottish justice minister on August ## defended his decision to sanction the early release of convicted Lockerbie bomber Abdelbaset Ali Mohamed al-Megrahi. The current administration in

INDIA: Poor monsoon INDIA: Policy flaws exacerbate monsoon impact The June-August southwest monsoon has failed this year. The poor monsoon is putting pressure on food prices and threatening India#;s recovery from economic slowdown. It also highlights longer-term

LIBYA/UK/US: Megrahi release LIBYA/UK/US: Long-term ties to weather Lockerbie spat On August ##, convicted Lockerbie bomber Abdelbasset Ali Mohamed al-Megrahi was released from a Scottish jail and returned to Libya. Megrahi#;s release and

GEORGIA: Abkhaz dilemma GEORGIA: Rebel Abkhazia is wary of Russia#;s embrace Abkhazia celebrates one year of Russian recognition tomorrow. Stability in Abkhazia is important because of its location on the Black Sea coast; the challenge it poses for Georgia

INTERNATIONAL: Monetary policy INTERNATIONAL: Monetary policy faces major rethink How the ####-## crisis may influence future monetary policy. The unprecedented scale of the #### financial collapse and subsequent global recession is forcing economists and policymakers to rethink many of

BULGARIA: Energy policy BULGARIA: Sofia re-examines big energy projects The future of large energy infrastructure projects. Calls from the new government to optimise Bulgaria#;s involvement in large infrastructure and energy projects in order to improve the country#;s

COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA: ICJ ruling COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA: ICJ ruling could boost tourism Implications of the recent International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruling on the Rio San Juan dispute. Settlement of the issue could improve bilateral relations, and open up

CHINA: CCP #;moral hazard#; CHINA: Dealing with the CCP poses dilemmas for many Managing relations with a Chinese Communist Party-run China with an eye on stability. Beijing intends maintaining China#;s #;socialist market economy#; system and is determined not

UNITED KINGDOM: Privacy law UNITED KINGDOM: Privacy law harms tabloid media The rapid emergence of the right to privacy in UK law. After the failure of successive UK governments to introduce a statutory framework for protecting privacy, it has been

SOUTH ASIA: Nuclear weapons SOUTH ASIA: Indian submarine will tip nuclear balance The geostrategic significance of India#;s nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons in South Asia are a matter of global concern, not least because India has unresolved border conflicts with

LEBANON: Government formation LEBANON: Government formation deadlock set to continue Prime Minister-designate Saad al-Hariri left Lebanon for a family visit to Saudi Arabia on August ##. Hariri#;s departure reflects the fact that the government formation process is

INTERNATIONAL: Tax-haven scrutiny INTERNATIONAL: Tax deal marks new era Swiss banking group UBS on August ## agreed to disclose the identities of #,### US account holders to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). By making the agreement, Switzerland has

RUSSIA: Economic nationalism RUSSIA: Economic nationalism motivates market closures The political and economic significance of recent wholesale market closures in Moscow. The closure at the end of June of Russia#;s largest clothing and goods wholesale market, Cherkizovsky, was widely

PERU: Economic slowdown PERU: Economic slowdown may see zero #### growth GDP grew by #.##% in the first two quarters of ####, the National Statistics Institute reported on August ##. Global recession has hit Peru#;s relatively open economy

SWAZILAND: Economic strain SWAZILAND: Economic strain heightens political tension Economic and political strains confronting the regime. Swaziland#;s government faces growing economic difficulties as a result of the global downturn. These strains have exacerbated political tensions brought about by the

SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA: Hyundai diplomacy SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA: High level dialogue resumes North Korean envoys met South Korean President Lee Myung-bak in Seoul yesterday. This was Lee#;s first high-level meeting with officials from Pyongyang, who

AFGHANISTAN: Presidential election AFGHANISTAN: Re-election may not strengthen Karzai President Hamid Karzai won re-election in yesterday#;s election with no need for a second round, his campaign manager said today. The main purpose of the election was to

INTERNATIONAL: The unemployed INTERNATIONAL: Unemployment leaves lasting toll The psychological impact of mass unemployment. Mass unemployment has returned on a scale and with a ferocity that has caught most Western governments by surprise. All governments have turned to the issue

CEE: Retreating religion CEE: Church#;s socio-political role is fading Priests in Plovdiv have called for postponing pop star Madonna#;s Sofia concert on August ##. The concert falls on the Orthodox feast of John the Baptist, which the

BURUNDI: Political tensions BURUNDI: Opposition suffers amid pre-election tensions Political tensions, including targeted assassinations, ahead of the #### elections. State-sanctioned violence marks a significant hardening of the government#;s posture towards the main opposition parties, including the former

IRAN: Ahmadi-Nejad policy outlook IRAN: Rhetoric and inertia in store under Ahmadi-Nejad President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad presented his new cabinet to the nation in a televised address yesterday. As Ahmadi-Nejad begins his second term, the Islamic Republic

LATIN AMERICA: UNASUR uncertainties LATIN AMERICA: Regional tensions challenge UNASUR Colombia has agreed to attend the South American Union (UNASUR) summit on August ##. The summit is an important opportunity to address profound regional divisions over the recent US-Colombia

RUSSIA: Bankruptcy reform RUSSIA: Bankruptcy reform promises no quick fix Prospects for reforming the bankruptcy regime. The financial pressures faced by Russian companies are prompting further reforms of bankruptcy legislation in order to support restructuring and provide an alternative to

JAPAN: Hatoyama profile JAPAN: Hatoyama favours new policy tone and directions A profile of Yukio Hatoyama, leader of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), who is likely to be the next prime minister. A DPJ victory would end years of

AFRICA: Data problems AFRICA: Data problems hold region back Macro data problems in sub-Saharan Africa. Despite the growing demand for macroeconomic data, the provision of such statistics in sub-Saharan Africa has been neglected, with unfortunate consequences. Those agencies

INTERNATIONAL: FSB prospects INTERNATIONAL: Crisis end tests FSB resolve The Financial Stability Board (FSB) and its prospects. Despite a lack of enforcement mechanisms, the FSB has potential to become an important institution through its position as the supervisor of international

HAITI: Obstacles to progress HAITI: Minimum wage exacerbates tensions Conflict over the minimum wage. The development strategy President Rene Preval has adopted, in agreement with the UN and its new special envoy to Haiti, Bill Clinton, has faced determined opposition

GUYANA: Crime concerns GUYANA: Complicity claims quicken crime concerns Opposition demands for an inquiry into recent scandals affecting the government. Allegations made in July linked government officials with authorisation for a US company to sell high-powered surveillance equipment to

BELARUS: Crisis concerns BELARUS: Crisis prompts short-term liberalisation The authorities#; efforts to modernise the economy and restart growth. Minsk#;s declared pursuit of economic liberalisation is coming to fruition as the authorities realise that heavy-handed regulation cannot yield

UNITED STATES: Consumer finance regulation UNITED STATES: Consumer finance agency hits buffers The prospects for President Barack Obama#;s proposed Consumer Financial Protection Agency (CFPA). The mooted CFPA poses the greatest threat to current financial services industry practices in the

EUROPE: Shipbuilding troubles EUROPE: Shipbuilders are troubled by economic crisis The purchase of the insolvent Wadan shipyard on August ## by a Russian investor outlines the dire situation of the European shipbuilding industry. The recent selling of the Wadan shipyard

CHINA: Money-driven growth CHINA: Beijing relies on banks to drive recovery The Shanghai Composite Index fell by #.#% today. After a strong surge this year, China#;s equity markets are correcting on increased share supply and policy uncertainties

PAKISTAN: Economic management PAKISTAN: Economic management improves under Tarin Moody#;s credit agency on August ## raised its outlook on Pakistan from negative to stable. With the release of a further tranche of IMF funds, the ratings upgrade signals greater

LESOTHO: Turbulent times LESOTHO: Economic turbulence compounds tensions Lesotho#;s political and economic outlook. The fallout from the #### election continues to plague Lesotho#;s politics. The global downturn and uncertainty over the Southern African Customs Union has negatively affected

RUSSIA: Military manufacturing RUSSIA: Defence sector growth is probably short lived The biannual MAKS air show began yesterday outside Moscow, yielding a "record sum" in state orders for combat aircraft, according to Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. In the first half

PERU: Democratic institutions PERU: Citizens are sceptical about institutions The voting public#;s distrust about the workings of democratic institutions. With presidential elections due in less than two years, Peruvian voters are highly sceptical about the way democratic institutions work

CHILE: Coal calculations CHILE: Coal generation raises emissions concerns Rising coal-fired electricity generating capacity. Over the next two years, coal-fired generating capacity will more than double and, by ####, is expected to represent ##% of the country#;s

SPAIN: Labour market SPAIN: Unemployment soars to record levels The economy experienced its fourth consecutive quarter of contraction in April-June, it was reported on August ##. Soaring unemployment is restricting consumer demand, straining government finances, threatening the pension system

UNITED STATES: QDR and procurement UNITED STATES: QDR to define posture and procurement The impact of the #### Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) on the US armed services and Pentagon procurement programmes. The QDR is the Department of Defense#;s most

INTERNATIONAL: Terms of trade INTERNATIONAL: Commodities force re-think on growth The impact of a long-run increase in commodity prices. The prospect of a long-run increase in commodity prices is necessitating a reappraisal of #;stylised facts#; in the

MIDDLE EAST: Real estate outlook MIDDLE EAST: Property sector to post modest growth The outlook for real estate prices in the non-Gulf Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. While the region has in recent years recorded growth in

INDIA: BJP renewal? INDIA: Grassroots renewal will be hard for BJP Senior Bharatiya Jamata Party (BJP) leaders meet in Himachel Pradesh tomorrow for a three-day strategy conference As the party strives to keep its national role following a crushing

JAPAN: Temporary recovery? JAPAN: Recovery is fragile and export-dependent GDP rose in the second quarter, the Cabinet Office reported yesterday. This follows four quarters of decline. An enduring recovery would lift confidence within and outside Japan and improve the

BULGARIA: Crisis policies BULGARIA: Economic crisis could revive stalled reform The economy shrank by #.#% year-on-year in the second quarter, according to flash estimates released yesterday. This deepens the recession that began with a #.#% dip

RUSSIA: State steel support RUSSIA: Government support props up steel sector Prospects for the steel sector#;s eventual recovery. Domestic and international demand for Russian steel has declined substantially due to the global recession, but the strategic importance of the

MEXICO: Fiscal crisis MEXICO: Fiscal crisis demands urgent action In a meeting with senators, Finance Minister Agustin Carstens on August ## warned of the worst fiscal shock in decades. With the economy suffering deep recession, and oil production plunging, severe

UNITED STATES: Spaceflight options UNITED STATES: Spaceflight options require more money The committee reviewing options for human spaceflight briefed the White House on August ##. The committee#;s final report will challenge the administration of President Barack Obama to invest

VIETNAM: Pump priming VIETNAM: Stimulus measures pose longer-term risk Exports are unlikely to grow this year, in a sharp break with the country#;s recent past, a government think-tank predicted today. Stimulus measures have partly compensated for a

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES: Dubai attractiveness UNITED ARAB EMIRATES: Dubai expatriate allure fading Questions over Dubai#;s continued attractiveness to Western expatriates. Dubai#;s reputation as an open, Western-friendly Arab country has suffered setbacks over the past few months as

ZAMBIA: Political tensions ZAMBIA: President faces mounting political pressures The news editor of the Post newspaper is on trial for allegedly distributing obscene images, in a case that many believe to be politically motivated. Conflict between the government and the

JAPAN/EAST ASIA: Hidden unemployment JAPAN/EAST ASIA: Hidden jobless threaten the recovery Hidden unemployment in Japan and elsewhere in East Asia. Japan#;s official unemployment rate hit a six-year high of #.#% in June, but potential unemployment

BRAZIL: Petrobras probe BRAZIL: Petrobras probe prey to political pressures The Senate probe of state-controlled oil company Petrobras. After months of delays, the commission began work on August #. Although proceedings risk disrupting the company#;s day-to-day

UNITED KINGDOM: Food Security UNITED KINGDOM: Food plan may hit popular resistance On August ##, the government published a package of material on food security and sustainability. The original Cabinet Office publications on this subject came at a time of

ARMENIA: NK principles ARMENIA: Opinion splits over NK Madrid principles The debate among Armenians on what principles should guide a resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) conflict. For the first time in the new millennium, a debate has started in

SCIENCE/TECHNOLOGY: Flu waves SCIENCE/TECHNOLOGY: Preparation is needed for flu wave Outlook for A(H#N#) infection, vaccines and treatment. Recent UK media reports concerning the efficacy of antiviral drugs given to children as treatment or prophylaxis for influenza overshadowed

SOUTH KOREA: Prosecutor problems SOUTH KOREA: Prosecution moves evidence wider problems Troubled nominations for prosecutor-general. Prosecutors and other public officials still struggle in terms of public image and to be seen as independent. Appointments are mishandled and questions arise

IRAN: Political crisis and economy IRAN: Economy to weather crisis, sanctions, populism President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad is due to present his cabinet next week. The populist polices of his first term represented an extreme version of the self-inflicted harm

UK/INTERNATIONAL: FSA Code UK/INTERNATIONAL: FSA Code may damage London The United Kingdom#;s Financial Services Authority (FSA) announced on August ## a Code of Practice covering remuneration practices in financial services that will apply to ## large financial

RUSSIA: Putin machismo RUSSIA: Putin#;s machismo yields diminishing returns This week marks the tenth anniversary of Vladimir Putin#;s appointment as prime minister by former President Boris Yeltsin. Recent photographs of a bare-chested Putin swimming and fishing while

BULGARIA: GERB government BULGARIA: New government proclaims radical change New Prime Minister Boyko Borisov declared on # August that he expects members of the previous cabinet to be convicted soon for breaking the law. The new government has acted swiftly

INDIA: Gas futures INDIA: Ambani feud undermines gas investment The struggle between the Ambani brothers for control of gas from the Krishna-Godavari basin. Exploitation of India#;s largest natural gas discovery is being put at risk by a legal

ARGENTINA: Carlos Reutemann ARGENTINA: Reutemann inches towards presidential bid A profile of probable Peronist presidential contender, Senator Carlos Reutemann. Reutemann#;s moderate style, in sharp contrast with the strident tone of Presidents Nestor Kirchner and Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, and

SCIENCE/TECHNOLOGY: CO# removal SCIENCE/TECHNOLOGY: Natural CO# removal is possible Removal of carbon dioxide (CO#) from the atmosphere. Carbon capture and sequestration has been identified as a key method of reducing global CO# concentrations by removing gas evolved from

EUROPE: Green shoots assessment EUROPE: Indicators suggest slow economic recovery The German and French economies recorded quarter-on-quarter growth rates of #.#%, it was reported today. While much is being read into the recent signs of improved macro

EGYPT/US: Improving relations EGYPT/US: Succession could cloud improving relations Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak visits Washington on August ##. Mubarak#;s first Washington visit in five years comes after an earlier cancellation of a scheduled trip in May due

TAIWAN: Chairman Ma TAIWAN: Ma moves to tighten party control President Ma Ying-jeou#;s July ## election to Kuomintang (KMT) chairman. In ####, he said he would not seek the ruling party position if he were to become president

INTERNATIONAL: Stock exchanges INTERNATIONAL: Regulation reform drives exchange moves IntercontinentalExchange announced on August ## that it has cleared ##.# billion euros (##.# billion dollars) in credit default swaps since launching a European clearing operation on July ##, after

MADAGASCAR: Power-sharing deal MADAGASCAR: Power-sharing deal offers hope of recovery A framework for the return to normal constitutional rule was agreed during August #-# talks in Mozambique. The deal was signed by former Presidents Albert Zafy, Didier

CENTRAL ASIA: Resurgent insurgents CENTRAL ASIA: Rising violence points to IMU revival Outbreaks of violence this spring and summer. Islamist militants may be seeking to reinvigorate their Central Asian operations, which have weakened since their peak a decade ago. Counter