Oxford Analytica

US/INDIA: Bilateral challenge US/INDIA: Agreements may prove elusive this year Challenges for US-India relations. The recent visit to Delhi by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton showed that US-India relations have deepened and are on a

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES: East Asia ties UNITED ARAB EMIRATES: East Asia business ties thicken The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company is finalising an agreement with the Japanese government and Japan#;s Nippon Oil Company to store Abu Dhabi crude oil

IRELAND: Budget cuts IRELAND: Report offers blueprint for shrunken state The Irish Central Bank noted "serious concern" at the country#;s fiscal position, in its quarterly bulletin published on July ##. Ireland is set to run the largest proportional budget

UNITED STATES: Labour mobility UNITED STATES: Reduced labour mobility slows recovery Declining US labour mobility. One of the traditional strengths of the US job market is labour mobility, which is much higher than in Europe or Canada. However, for the

INTERNATIONAL: Africa/India telecoms INTERNATIONAL: South-South telecoms set to expand Mobile telecoms providers MTN of South Africa and Bharti Airtel of India are in merger discussions. A combined entity could become a formidable mobile telecoms giant in emerging markets

NEW ZEALAND: Agriculture#;s recession NEW ZEALAND: Recession drives farming to adapt Silver Fern Farms shareholders yesterday backed plans that should bring in fresh capital in and help the meat cooperative to modernise. New Zealand#;s economy is open. It

RUSSIA: Nuclear energy prospects RUSSIA: Despite challenges, nuclear power is growing Prospects for growth in the nuclear energy sector. While discussions of Russia#;s energy potential tend to focus on oil and gas, the nuclear sector will have an increasingly

PARAGUAY/BRAZIL: Itaipu issues PARAGUAY/BRAZIL: Itaipu accord may boost lagging Lugo On July ## the presidents of Paraguay and Brazil signed an agreement to alter the bilateral economic relationship concerning operation of the jointly owned Itaipu hydroelectric plant. The

SINGAPORE: Coping with crisis SINGAPORE: Political system is shielded from crisis The government is ready to take action if a new property market bubble emerges, National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan said yesterday. Although Singapore is undergoing a sharp economic

EUROPEAN UNION: Education report EUROPEAN UNION: Education systems look ahead to future The implications of the latest Eurydice network report on education in Europe. The Eurydice network, created by the EU to create comparable data on European education systems, has

IRAQ: Kurdish elections IRAQ: Kurdish elections shift local and federal power The Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) yesterday issued provisional results from the July ## Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) presidential and parliamentary elections. A significant new party has emerged in

US/CHINA: Expanded dialogue US/CHINA: Expanded dialogue may have lost focus The US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue (SED) concluded in Washington on July ##. The exchange involved an unprecedented number of cabinet and ministerial-level US and Chinese

ARMENIA: Encouraging credit ARMENIA: State stimulates depressed credit market Consumer credit fell in April-June by ##.#% quarter-on-quarter, it was reported yesterday. Armenia has been a successful in protecting its financial system from the wider global economic

INTERNATIONAL: Executive compensation INTERNATIONAL: Compensation reform loses momentum The outlook for executive compensation regulation. Recent news about record bonuses at certain financial firms show that little has changed for executive compensation, with the industry eagerly returning to the short-term

GHANA: Corruption and politics GHANA: Corruption remains politically significant The political significance of corruption. Although there is little evidence that corruption is undermining the prospects for economic growth, graft is becoming an increasingly salient political issue in Ghana. However, the

CUBA: Hardship and tensions CUBA: Economic crisis challenges succession Cuba#;s National Assembly convenes on August #. Economic crisis looms large, while political inertia means the long overdue Communist Party Congress again may be postponed. A recent economic report -- the

ITALY: Growth outlook ITALY: Economy poorly placed for a recovery Italian business confidence rose to an eight-month high in July, Rome-based research institute Isae reported today. The rebound of Italian business, manufacturing and consumer confidence indices reflects signs

TURKEY: Public finances TURKEY: Lira recovers but budget performance worsens The lira is trading at #.## to the dollar and #.## to the euro, having strengthened noticeably in recent days due to improving global financial market sentiment. Contrary

NIGERIA: #;Islamist#; violence NIGERIA: Military cracks down on Islamist fighters #;Islamist#; violence against the state and police in northern Nigeria has entered a fourth day today. Since July ##, a Muslim sect called #;Boko Haram#; (#;Western education is forbidden#;) has

INTERNATIONAL: Unmanned aircraft systems INTERNATIONAL: Drone aircraft market growing, dynamic The US Air Force on July ## released a report detailing the potential future use of unmanned drones as bombers, cargo transports, and in attacking #;swarms#;. Boeing#;s takeover of

SERBIA: Presevo policy SERBIA: Belgrade keeps #;softly softly#; Presevo policy In a meeting with Interior Minister Ivica Dacic on July ##, Presevo Mayor Ragmi Mustafa called for more ethnic Albanian involvement in policing in southern Serbia. The Belgrade meeting followed

SOUTH KOREA: Foreign policy and politics SOUTH KOREA: Politics will constrain foreign policy The effect of domestic politics on foreign policy. From an early stage, President Lee Myung-bak#;s administration has taken on some of the characteristics of a

MOLDOVA: Fresh elections MOLDOVA: New elections are unlikely to break deadlock Repeat parliamentary elections are being held today. Snap elections come just four months after riots and parliamentary deadlock prevented the election of a new president. Polls suggest that compromise

COLOMBIA: FARC campaign COLOMBIA: FARC launches urban campaign Shifts in Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) strategy. Recent attacks demonstrate the continued risk the FARC poses to national security, even after last year#;s decisive setbacks. The move towards a

CEE: Social equality CEE: EU membership has beneficial social effects Social equality in the ten post-communist EU member states (EU-##). The EU-## on average confirm the academically established view that the more equal a society is, the

SOUTH-EAST ASIA: Mutual funds SOUTH-EAST ASIA: Mutual funds soak up liquidity The growth of mutual funds in South-east Asia. An affluent middle class with relatively high disposable incomes is driving the popularity of investment instruments as real

CHINA/US/EU: Protectionism risks CHINA/US/EU: Protection suspicion risks trade war The EU imposed tariffs on Chinese steel wire rods yesterday for five years. Up until now, the tariffs had been temporary, awaiting yesterday#;s decision. The imposition

SOUTH AFRICA: Marcus profile SOUTH AFRICA: Marcus will pursue continuity at SARB A profile of Gill Marcus, newly-appointed governor of the South African Reserve Bank. Marcus#;s widely welcomed appointment will bring stability to what was becoming an increasingly

UNITED STATES: Card check UNITED STATES: EFCA may slow unions#; long decline The outlook for the Employee Free Choice Act, and US labour union influence. Union membership in the United States has declined dramatically over the past half-century. With

BRAZIL: Ferrous fortunes BRAZIL: Iron ore, steel face diverging perspectives The disparate outlook for Brazilian iron and steel. Brazil#;s iron and steel industries have been among those hardest hit by the world financial crisis, albeit in different ways. Until

CARIBBEAN: Upheaval and unrest CARIBBEAN: Non-independent states face upheaval Recent constitutional upheaval and civil unrest in several non-sovereign territories. Constitutional uncertainty in the Turks and Caicos Islands and Bermuda (both UK territories) and the Netherlands Antilles (a Dutch

TURKEY/EU: Nabucco benefits TURKEY/EU: Nabucco brings integration benefits Construction of the #,###-kilometre Nabucco pipeline bringing Caspian natural gas via Turkey to Europe is due to start in ####. The inter-governmental agreement signed in Ankara this

INDONESIA: Cabinet deliberations INDONESIA: Yudhoyono weighs cabinet options President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono will announce his cabinet line-up once results of the July # presidential election are officially confirmed. He will have much freedom of action, having won the election

US/AFGHANISTAN: Reducing #;collateral damage#; US/AFGHANISTAN: Airpower hit in counter-terror fight The prospects for the US military effort to reduce civilian casualties in Afghanistan by restricting the use of airpower. After assuming command of US forces in Afghanistan

SUDAN: Darfur outlook SUDAN: CPA diverts effort from Darfur settlement Political, security and humanitarian prospects in Darfur. The Darfur conflict is still unresolved and is a complicating factor for wider issues in Sudan, such as elections planned for ####. In

CHINA: Party democracy CHINA: Democracy may yet be forced upon CCP A steel company manager was beaten to death last week in a restructuring dispute in Jilin, the press has reported today. China lacks the agencies available to liberal democracies

RUSSIA: Alcohol consumption RUSSIA: Alcohol use presents public health crisis The demographic and policy implications of alcohol use in Russia. New academic research has found that alcohol has been a major factor in Russia#;s rising mortality rates in the

PUERTO RICO: Sovereignty question PUERTO RICO: Status faces long process The return of status to the political agenda. President Barack Obama is seeking to fulfil a campaign pledge. President Barack Obama campaigned hard in Puerto Rico last year ( see PUERTO

INTERNATIONAL: R&D outlook INTERNATIONAL: University partnerships drive R&D The current outlook for research and development (R&D). R&D drives industry, and consequently the economy. It is crucial to improving quality of life. However, in many industries there

INDIA: Education outlook INDIA: Private schools are key to economic transition Minister of Human Resource Development Kabil Sibal said on July ## that he will table a Right to Education Bill in the present session of parliament. The bill aims

MIDDLE EAST: Fatah divisions MIDDLE EAST: Fatah disarray to continue despite talks The Fatah movement is scheduled to hold its sixth general conference on August #. Bitter divisions afflict Fatah in the run up to the conference. They have been

EUROPE: Direct democracy EUROPE: Referendum tactic has strategic implications The increasing use of referendums in European policy. The German Christian Social Union (CSU), the Bavarian wing of the governing Christian Democratic Union (CDU), has proposed that more EU decisions be

GAMBIA: Revolutionary outlook GAMBIA: #;Revolution#; draws critics on human rights On July ##, Gambia marked the ##th anniversary of the #### coup that brought Yahya Jammeh to power. Jammeh#;s military-populist #;revolution#; has brought some economic gains at the

KYRGYZSTAN: Presidential election KYRGYZSTAN: Bakiyev landslide may not ensure stability Incumbent President Kurmanbek Bakiyev has won a landslide ##-##% victory in the July ## election. The result was widely predicted by the domestic opposition and international observers. Its lack

VENEZUELA/US: Drugs divisions VENEZUELA/US: Drugs divisions fuel diplomatic dangers The US Government Accountability Office (GAO) published a report on July ## claiming that cocaine trafficking via Venezuela had risen sharply in recent years. The negative GAO evaluation of

INTERNATIONAL: Hedge fund regulation INTERNATIONAL: Hedge fund rules may trigger migration Proposed EU and US regulatory frameworks for the regulation of hedge funds and private equity firms. Regulatory changes in the United States and especially the EU will have competitive

INDONESIA: Energy challenge INDONESIA: Jakarta balances energy priorities Energy policy under re-elected President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. Having broached a range of ambitious energy reforms during his previous term, Yudhoyono will attach high priority to seeing these through now that

UNITED STATES: Reform legislation prospects UNITED STATES: Obama will achieve heath reform in #### President Barack Obama yesterday admitted that people were sceptical about the Democratic party#;s approach to healthcare reform. Obama#;s approval ratings have softened somewhat, while

UNITED KINGDOM: Conservative foreign policy UNITED KINGDOM: Europe again looms over Tory plans Shadow Foreign Secretary William Hague in a major speech on July ## set out an overview of UK foreign policy were his party to win the next

CONGO-KINSHASA: Eastern insecurity CONGO-KINSHASA: FDLR threat continues in Kivus Continued insecurity in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). In the four months since the conclusion of the joint Congolese-Rwandan operation against the eastern DRC#;s largest

INTERNATIONAL: Tax transparency INTERNATIONAL: Tax transparency is set to increase The outlook for international tax transparency. Key governments are now committed to pursuing effective measures to increase the level of transparency around international tax issues. The boundaries of #;legitimate#; tax

CHINA: PRC anniversary CHINA: Party is nervous in run up to anniversary The forthcoming ##th anniversary of the founding of the People#;s Republic of China. The Chinese Communist Party is stronger today than it has been for twenty years

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Mid-term outlook DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Fernandez faces growing challenges Current and future economic performance in the wake of the global financial crisis. After several years of high economic growth, the Dominican Republic faces similar problems to neighbouring countries

MEXICO: PRI economic policy MEXICO: PRI signals populist economic policy Economic impact of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) election victory. The Calderon administration will face a tough challenge negotiating with an emboldened PRI. Early signs are not encouraging, but do

INTERNATIONAL: Commodity regulation INTERNATIONAL: Commodity futures need transparency Proposals to tighten regulation of commodity futures markets. The enforcement of strict position limits on commodity futures could reverse their emergence as a new asset class. The issue of speculation in futures

GERMANY/US: Bilateral relationsGERMANY/US: Bilateral spats have been overplayed The state of US-German relations. German leader Angela Merkel has faced criticism at home for missing the opportunity provided by several meetings with US President Barack Obama to improve

US/EU: ### prospectsUS/EU: Boeing, Airbus face market headwinds The prospects for the ### Dreamliner, and Boeing#;s competitive position vis-a-vis Airbus, following the latest delay in the aircraft#;s maiden flight. The ### is the world

IRAN: Drugs problemIRAN: Drugs problem requires international cooperation Iran#;s drug abuse and trafficking problems. The presidents of Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan agreed in May to bolster cooperation to combat drug production and smuggling. Tehran has long expressed frustration at

CHINA/MACAO: New chief executiveCHINA/MACAO: Diversification will test new leader The Special Administrative Region chooses its second chief executive on July ##. On July ##, Fernando Chui Sai On will be elected chief executive of Macao. His predecessor helped

UKRAINE: SBU PoliticisationUKRAINE: Politics cast a shadow over Security Service The persistent politicisation of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and other paramilitary agencies. The SBU continues to engage in activities well beyond its legal remit, including domestic political disputes

SOUTH AFRICA: Economic policy tensionsSOUTH AFRICA: Economic policy team sends mixed signals President Jacob Zuma announced on July ## that ANC stalwart Gill Marcus will replace Reserve Bank Governor Tito Mboweni in November. The tensions between #;continuity#; and #;change#; in

BRAZIL: Senate scandalsBRAZIL: Senate scandals reveal PT-PMDB fissures Implications of the series of scandals that have hit the Brazilian Senate since March. Senate President Jose Sarney is under pressure to resign. Sarney is a key figure within the Brazilian

BULGARIA: Boyko BorisovBULGARIA: Forceful Borisov takes the helm A profile of Prime Minister-designate Boyko Borisov. Borisov has inspired more confidence in voters than any other leader since ####. However, he has yet to prove that he can go beyond

POLAND/EU: Buzek presidencyPOLAND/EU: Buzek#;s EU role will have impact at home The domestic and European significance of Jerzy Buzek#;s election as president of the European Parliament. Buzek#; s appointment will strengthen the voice of new member

US/ASEAN: Clinton agendaUS/ASEAN: Clinton pushes for progress on trade Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is today attending the annual Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Post-Ministerial Conference and then the ASEAN Regional Forum in Phuket, Thailand. Clinton

RUSSIA: North Caucasus strategyRUSSIA: Killings cast doubt on North Caucasus strategy Ingushetia#;s President Yunus-Bek Yevkurov yesterday made his first public statement since the June ## attempt on his life, urging militants to disarm and calling for Ingushetia#;s

JAPAN: Defence white paperJAPAN: Security means US alliance but also autonomy The cabinet approved the #### Defence of Japan white paper on July ##. The paper stresses continuities but is also set against the background of and indicates potentially new

ARGENTINA: Influenza impactARGENTINA: A(H#N#) tests health system, hits economy Health Minister Juan Manzur said yesterday that there have been some ### deaths from the A(H#N#) outbreak nationwide. The outbreak is underscoring the weaknesses of the health system while

ISRAEL/US: Strained relationsISRAEL/US: Obama policy gains no traction Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu on July ## rejected US calls to delay a housing development in East Jerusalem, on the grounds that Israeli "sovereignty over it" could not be

INTERNATIONAL: Streaming mediaINTERNATIONAL: Streaming media redefines ownership The impact of #;cloud computing#; on distribution of media and entertainment. The next-generation of internet connections and data centres will help to realise the potential of streaming media on the web. As

LIBERIA: TRC repercussionsLIBERIA: TRC report roils recovery prospects On July ##, a bill was introduced in the legislature which seeks to establish a war crimes court for Liberia. Six years on from the end of its civil war, Liberia remains

UNITED STATES: Banks and derivativesUNITED STATES: Derivatives reforms to hit bank profits Several of the largest US financial institutions, including JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, last week reported strong second quarter earnings results, in part attributable to market making

EU/BALKANS: Visa liberalisationEU/BALKANS: Commission plans to lift visas for some The European Commission recommended discontinuing visa requirements for Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia on July ##. The recommendation does not include Albania, Bosnia-Hercegovina or Kosovo. As such, the

JAPAN: Economic policy outlookJAPAN: DPJ victory would see economic policy shifts Well over double the respondents would favour a Democratic Party of Japan-led government compared with the number who would prefer a Liberal Democratic Party-led one, a Kyodo

RUSSIA: Intra-elite strifeRUSSIA: Dovgy case sheds light on elite infighting The implications of former senior investigator Dmitry Dovgy#;s imprisonment on charges of corruption and abuse of office. Dovgy#;s conviction is the latest case to reveal ongoing factional

LATIN AMERICA: Growth gloomLATIN AMERICA: GDP contraction hits social indicators On July ##, the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) forecast a #.#% contraction in regional GDP for ####. This marks the third reduction in

BOLIVIA: Bilingual educationBOLIVIA: Bilingual education has limited impact Policies to encourage bilingual and intercultural education. With a government keen to promote native culture and reverse the traditional balance between elites and the majority indigenous population, bilingual and intercultural education is

SRI LANKA: Radicalised diasporaSRI LANKA: Radical diaspora could back new violence Radicalisation in the Sri Lankan Tamil diaspora. Members of the million-strong Sri Lankan Tamil diaspora organised large-scale meetings in early #### in which support for the Liberation

UNITED STATES: Migration and recessionUNITED STATES: Illegal migration fall is temporary The steep fall in the migration of undocumented Hispanic immigrants to the United States, and its implications. Hispanic migration to the United States has fallen precipitously since the start

INDIA: Business empiresINDIA: Industrial #;oligarchs#; no threat to democracy The relationship between business and politics. The strong influence of a small number of privately-owned industrial conglomerates is a noticeable feature of India#;s recent economic development. Yet while it

ITALY: Berlusconi post-G#ITALY: Berlusconi at risk despite G# success Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi promised yesterday that all those displaced by the April L#;Aquila earthquake would be re-housed by November. Berlusconi has emerged strengthened from last week#;s

MIDDLE EAST/US: Obama reactionsMIDDLE EAST/US: Arab world awaits firm Obama policies Reaction in the Arab world to US President Barack Obama#;s landmark Cairo speech. Obama#;s speech was most important in symbolic terms, signalling a desire to

CHINA: Private sector investmentCHINA: Policies seek to boost private investment Policy towards the private sector. Moves underway in the south-eastern province of Zhejiang may become the model for national policies, encouraging private businesses to enter sectors previously dominated by

ARMENIA: Media conformityARMENIA: Control of media goes with low standards The implications of government restrictions on media freedom. Harassment of and violence against journalists, censorship and self-censorship, and poor journalistic standards add up to a bleak picture of the

ARGENTINA: Human rights challengesARGENTINA: Government ties pose risks for rights NGOs The relationship between the government and human rights organisations since ####. The administrations of President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner and her predecessor, Nestor Kirchner, have embraced the traditional #;truth

SCIENCE/TECHNOLOGY: A(H#N#) influenzaSCIENCE/TECHNOLOGY: Data needed as pandemic spreads The UK government yesterday warned that ##,###-##,### people could die from A(H#N#) influenza in the United Kingdom this winter. Epidemiologists from London#;s Imperial College

INDIA: Social spendingINDIA: Government addresses anti-poverty targeting Parliament yesterday approved the government#;s ####-## budget, which raises spending on anti-poverty programmes. A major objective of Indian economic policy since Independence has been to raise living standards of

UNITED STATES: Social conservatismUNITED STATES:Social conservatives in cyclical decline The influence of social conservatives within the Republican party. With the approaching resignation of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin on July ##, the powerful social conservative wing of the Republican party

ISRAEL: Budget incoherenceISRAEL: Budget reflects coalition spending demands The Knesset yesterday approved budgets for #### and ####. The combined budget reflects the state of play within the governing coalition. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is primarily concerned with the survival of

CONGO-BRAZZAVILLE: Flawed electionCONGO-BRAZZAVILLE: President wins flawed poll Provisional official results released yesterday showed President Denis Sassou-Nguesso had comfortably won re-election on July ##. Sassou-Nguesso#;s entirely predictable win confirms his unwavering hold on power, following

CENTRAL ASIA: Regional UighursCENTRAL ASIA: Ties to China trump Uighur interests Uighur community leaders in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan on July ## urged their compatriots to avoid large public gatherings and hold "peaceful" memorials for those killed in Xinjiang. Central Asian

UNITED KINGDOM: Financial paperUNITED KINGDOM: Finance reform will be left to others The significance of a recent UK White Paper on financial regulation. The White Paper is important for both its recognition of mistakes made in the past and proposals

CEE: Governance indicatorsCEE: Improving standards of legality is taking time The performance of Central-Eastern Europe (CEE) in the World Bank#;s latest Worldwide Governance Indicators. The latest indicators allow comparison of how governance has developed in different parts of

BRAZIL/US: Ethanol optionsBRAZIL/US: California may boost Brazil ethanol options Prospects for Brazilian ethanol exports to the United States. The recent California Air Resources Board#;s Low Carbon Fuel Standard is likely to open the way to Brazilian exports

UNITED STATES: Privatisation push?UNITED STATES: Fiscal crunch may drive privatisation The prospect that US states, under intense fiscal pressure, could return to privatisation as a means of cutting costs and raising cash. The fiscal crisis confronting many US states

EUROPEAN UNION: New broadcastingEUROPEAN UNION: Regulators eye online broadcast future UK Culture Minister Ben Bradshaw yesterday criticised the #;self-defeating#; criticism by state broadcaster BBC to proposals that it shares a portion of its funding with media rivals. The row

NEW ZEALAND: Tradables focusNEW ZEALAND: Government pushes on tradables The tradable sector has effectively been in recession for the last five years, Prime Minister John Key said today. Finance Minister Bill English has already identified a rebalancing from non-tradables

UKRAINE/RUSSIA: Gas guzzlingUKRAINE/RUSSIA: Gas risks are likely to rise in winter Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko said yesterday that Ukraine had already stockpiled enough gas to ensure steady supplies to businesses and consumers this winter. The decision to pump

AFRICA/GULF STATES: Economic tiesAFRICA/GULF STATES: Horn-Gulf links slowly deepen Economic ties between the Arabian Gulf and the Horn of Africa. The Horn of Africa is of some strategic importance to the countries of the Arabian peninsula and

ECUADOR: Foreign policyECUADOR: Correa continues pragmatic foreign policy Foreign policy orientations as President Rafael Correa prepares to initiate his second term of office. Although policy in recent weeks has shifted leftwards, Correa will continue to blend nationalism with awareness of