Oxford Analytica

IRAQ: Stabilisation outlookIRAQ: Slow stabilisation to continue this year US military forces today complete their withdrawal from Iraq#;s urban areas. The withdrawal is occurring at an uncertain moment in the stabilisation of the country, months before critical national elections

BURMA/BANGLADESH: Maritime frictionsBURMA/BANGLADESH: Chinese mediation eases gas tensions Tensions between Burma and Bangladesh over their disputed maritime boundary appear to be subsiding as negotiations and outside mediation replace months of confrontation. Normalisation of relations could smooth the way

UNITED STATES: State fiscal crunchUNITED STATES: States face severe fiscal crunch Many states face constitutionally mandated deadlines to balance their budgets today, which marks the end of the second quarter. For the ## states facing fiscal deficits, achieving balanced budgets

SOUTH KOREA/QATAR: Relations signalsSOUTH KOREA/QATAR: Qatar gives Seoul a regional window South Korea-Qatar ties. South Korea#;s ties to Qatar are representative of a widening South Korean interest in the Middle East. However, the success of the

HONDURAS: Zelaya removalHONDURAS: Zelaya removal poses acute challenges President Manel Zelaya was flown against his will to Costa Rica on June ## and the speaker of Congress sworn in as his interim replacement. The interruption of democratic rule has been

KAZAKHSTAN: Kazatomprom investigationsKAZAKHSTAN: Audits are not aimed at foreign investors On June ##, state investigative and security committees held a meeting aimed at "eradicating" corruption and preventing the misappropriation of funds. The meeting follows this month#;s announcement that Kazakhstan

INTERNATIONAL: Financial conditionsINTERNATIONAL: Tight financial conditions pose problem The broad change in financial conditions facing households and firms in ## developed and emerging markets. Some of these economies are enjoying an easing in financial conditions. Yet despite major policy efforts

PAKISTAN: Karachi violencePAKISTAN: Karachi violence threatens to escape control Violence is on the rise in Karachi involving rival branches of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement and displaced residents of Swat. Karachi handles ##% of Pakistan#;s foreign trade and houses ##

EUROPEAN UNION: Financial regulationEUROPEAN UNION: Cross-border risks prompt response European framework for coordinated macro- and micro-prudential financial supervision. Although the EU is not moving toward a single financial regulator, developing better coordination of the financial system from micro

ARGENTINA: Problematic plebisciteARGENTINA: Routine election redraws political map The government lost control of both houses of Congress in yesterday#;s mid-term elections. Government insistence on defining routine mid-term congressional elections as a #;plebiscite#; on the administration and its

EAST AFRICA: EAC outlookEAST AFRICA: Region responds to global slowdown The outlook for the East African Community (EAC) amid the global downturn. As non-oil exporting economies, EAC members have benefited from lower oil prices. However, the secondary effects of

INTERNATIONAL: Patent marketsINTERNATIONAL: Global patent market is growing The outlook for a secondary market in patents. A market for intellectual property (IP), specifically patents, is growing. Worsening economic conditions may be spurring growth, as firms face liquidity constraints and look

JAPAN: Government debtJAPAN: Debt financing carries distortion risks The hidden cost of undertaking a major fiscal stimulus. Unlike the United States and other advanced economies, Japan finances by far the greater part of its fiscal stimulus internally. This produces distortions

RUSSIA: Gazprom chastened?RUSSIA: Falling demand dashes Gazprom#;s ambitions On June ##, Gazprom issued modest forecasts for #### revenue, exports and capital expenditure at its annual general shareholders#; meeting. Dramatic falls in demand have hurt Gazprom#;s revenue streams

NORTH AMERICA: California fuel rulesNORTH AMERICA: Flawed fuel rules to hit energy sector The impact of the California Air Resources Board#;s new fuel lifecycle assessment rules on the energy industry in North America. The new regulations are an ambitious

INDIA: Communist collapseINDIA: Communist collapse leaves West Bengal vacuum Paramilitary police today launched a fresh offensive against revolutionary Naxalite cadres in Lalgarh, West Bengal. The weakening of constitutional communist parties, seen in the April-May general election, has opened the

GERMANY/EU: Lisbon and the courtsGERMANY/EU: Court powers on the line in Lisbon case The German Constitutional Court is due on June ## to rule on the constitutionality of the Lisbon Treaty. The ruling will be one of the

INTERNATIONAL/LATIN AMERICA: Vector-borne diseasesINTERNATIONAL/LATIN AMERICA: Andean malaria risk grows Vector-borne diseases in Latin America. International organisations have been warning that some regions of Latin America will be more vulnerable to vector-borne diseases like malaria and

TURKMENISTAN: Persistent unemploymentTURKMENISTAN: Tremendous wealth fails to create jobs The causes and consequences of unemployment in Turkmenistan. Although official statistics record no unemployment at all, independent international sources estimate that Turkmenistan#;s unemployment rate may be as high as ##

LATIN AMERICA: Microfinance methodsLATIN AMERICA: Microfinance to expand despite downturn The effects of the global financial crisis on Latin America#;s microfinance industry. Microfinance has turned into a multi-billion dollar industry and millions of poor people depend on it

BENIN: Socioeconomic strain BENIN: Global downturn adds to Yayi#;s woes Benin#;s political and economic outlook. Benin#;s economic difficulties, aggravated by the current global downturn, are adding to political and social tensions. The global economic crisis is having

CHINA/INTERNATIONAL: Renminbi appreciationCHINA/INTERNATIONAL: Renminbi appreciation is unlikely China#;s exchange-rate policy and the global recovery. After months of firefighting upheaval in the world financial system, the attention of economic policymakers is shifting back to the long-standing

INDONESIA: Policy processINDONESIA: Yudhoyono to face institutional challenge Relations between branches of government under an expected second administration of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. The president#;s Democrat Party has increased its share of lower house seats from #% to ##

IRAN: Khamenei standingIRAN: Hardline alliance damaging Khamenei standing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei yesterday said he would not yield to protests over the conduct of the presidential election. As head of state, Khamenei#;s role is central to the country#;s

SLOVAKIA: Open economySLOVAKIA: Economy shifts into reverse Responses to the decline in GDP. The grim numbers reflect Slovakia#;s heavy dependence on export markets. Slovakia is Central Europe#;s most open economy. In ####, exports comprised ##% of GDP. When

VENEZUELA/US: Restored relationsVENEZUELA/US: Renewed relations may ease dialogue Caracas and Washington yesterday confirmed the reinstatement of their ambassadors, both expelled in September ####. The restoration of ties will facilitate dialogue on the major differences that persist between the

CHINA: Policy discourseCHINA: CCP manages public debate to its advantage Policy discourse in China. Policy discourse in China is lively and engaged on a number of important policy issues. The Chinese Communist Party selectively tolerates and responds to certain public

UKRAINE: Trade deficitUKRAINE: Trade deficit persists due to gas dependence Ukraine#;s changing foreign trade dynamics amid a deep recession. The State Statistics Committee#;s latest report showed that the trade deficit worsened unexpectedly in the first four months of

PANAMA: Free trade delaysPANAMA: Trade accord faces delays Uncertainty over the free trade accord with the United States. President Barack Obama has made a political calculation, which has gone against Panama. There has been speculation in Washington about President Barack

IRAN: New media technologiesIRAN:New media technologies dominate protests coverage "In ####, no iron fist is strong enough to shut off the world from bearing witness to the peaceful pursuit of justice", US President Barack Obama yesterday said about Iran

UNITED STATES: Fiscal shortfallsUNITED STATES: Swelling deficit could retard recovery Demand was strong yesterday in an auction for ## billion dollars in two year US Treasury Notes, as the renewed bout of market risk-aversion pushed up demand for US

GEORGIA/US: Fine balanceGEORGIA/US: Support for Saakashvili is more nuanced Georgia is sending ### peace-keeping troops to the NATO force in Afghanistan this year and ### next, a Defence Ministry official said yesterday. Georgia is demonstrating its commitment

SOUTH-EAST ASIA: El Nino effectSOUTH-EAST ASIA: El Nino threatens food security An El Nino climatic effect is likely to bring drought conditions to South-east Asia within months, weather forecasters have warned. The consequences will include reduced agricultural

US/INTERNATIONAL: Frontier gasUS/INTERNATIONAL: US gas export potential is growing The impact of US shale gas on other frontier gas prospects. Contrary to peak oil theory, the US natural gas resource is expanding with the development of unconventional resources

CARIBBEAN: Financial failuresCARIBBEAN: Financial failures fuel fiscal fears The head of Antigua#;s financial services regulatory commission has been dismissed over accusations of bribe-taking, it was reported yesterday. The Caribbean is being battered by the global downturn as well

MEXICO: External sectorMEXICO: Global crisis impacts external sector Preliminary data to May, published yesterday, show accumulated exports contracting ##.#% year-on-year. Collapsing exports, tourism revenues, remittances and foreign investment are hitting hard the Mexican economy, obstructing recovery of

GREECE/CYPRUS: Tourism troublesGREECE/CYPRUS: Downturn could shake up tourism sector Greece expects the number of tourists to fall by #-##% in #### because of the global economic downturn, the tourism minister said on June ##. Tourism in both

CANADA: Political stalemate?CANADA: Political stalemate may prove lasting The opposition Liberal party is preparing a national tour for its leader, Michael Ignatieff, as he seeks to strengthen its challenge to the Conservative minority government. With polls indicating only a

BURMA: Suu Kyi trialBURMA: Junta set to isolate Suu Kyi ahead of polls The trial of pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, accused of breaching the terms of her house arrest, is to reconvene on July ##. The verdict

NORTH KOREA/INT: Collapse concernsNORTH KOREA/INT: Regime collapse will test all parties Talks between senior Chinese and US defence officials begin today in Beijing. Washington will want Beijing to help keep pressure on Pyongyang following North Korea#;s nuclear

CHILE: Election outlookCHILE: Survey lifts Frei#;s presidential prospects A new national opinion poll was released on June ##. The new poll shows the opposition#;s Sebastian Pinera, until now the frontrunner to win the December presidential election, losing a

RUSSIA: Ethnic violenceRUSSIA: Interethnic violence shows signs of spreading Ethno-national violence in the North Caucasus. Amid the economic crisis and rising unemployment, a recent spate of apparently unrelated and unprovoked attacks and killings in the North Caucasus suggest that

GREECE: Illegal immigrationGREECE: Frontline EU state buckles under immigration A bill setting stiffer penalties for people-smugglers lies before parliament. Clashes in Athens between right- and left-wing extremists, police and Muslim migrants threaten to inflame the highly problematic, but

NIGERIA: Fiscal indiscipline NIGERIA: Abuja courts new multilateral debt Outlook for a new World Bank lending facility to Nigeria. The economic boom which enabled Nigeria to clear its Paris Club debts in #### has now clearly subsided without creating meaningful

INTERNATIONAL: Loans for oilINTERNATIONAL: Resource nationalism gains ground Chinese loans backed by oil supply agreements. China is making good use of National Oil Companies#; straitened circumstances in terms of revenue and access to capital. By providing them with loans, Beijing

IRAN: Crisis outlookIRAN: Prolonged crisis could herald severe repression A national strike is due to take place tomorrow in the latest phase of the largest protests in Iran since the #### revolution. The far-right forces, who back President Ahmadi

TAIWAN: DRAM industryTAIWAN: Government chases DRAM vision Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM) manufacturer Powerchip Semiconductor said yesterday that it had secured agreement from investors on resetting the terms of a convertible bond. Taiwan#;s DRAM-makers have been struggling financially

RUSSIA: Looming lending lossesRUSSIA: Banks may face second crisis in autumn Parliament is considering a bill to restrict state recapitalisation to the larger banks. Russia is likely to have a second wave of banking difficulties later this year, as a

EUROPEAN UNION: Summer summitEUROPEAN UNION: Crowded summit makes vital gains Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen described as "entirely successful" the EU summit which ended on June ##. The meeting of EU leaders presented Ireland with legally binding assurances that are

PERU: Presidential backtrackPERU: Presidential backtrack defuses ethnic conflict Congress on June ## voted to annul legislative decrees #### and ####. A government about-turn on the controversial issue of jungle land use was an attempt to defuse the most important

US/UK: Corporate pensionsUS/UK: Market crash accelerates DB pensions decline The outlook for defined benefit pensions in the private sector. Both the United Kingdom and United States are traditional bastions of private defined benefit pension plans. However, the recent

CONGO-KINSHASA: Mining reliefCONGO-KINSHASA: Mining uptick grants some respite A number of foreign mining companies are beginning to reverse earlier production cutbacks. Traders are bidding up base metal prices in the expectation that even a modest improvement in global

UNITED STATES: Consumer financial protectionUNITED STATES: Obama backs new consumer finance cop President Barack Obama on June ## unveiled a long-awaited financial regulatory overhaul plan, which includes a proposed federal Consumer Financial Protection Agency (CFPA). The new agency would

EUROPEAN UNION: Carbon taxesEUROPEAN UNION: Blunter climate tool gains favour The outlook for development of a carbon tax at EU level. The incoming Swedish Presidency of the EU has indicated that it wants to reopen the issue of carbon taxes

LIBYA: Slowing reform momentumLIBYA: Succession issues slow reform momentum The declining influence of reformist elements in the Libyan regime. Since late #### the pro-reform elements appear to have lost ground, with a cabinet shuffle maintaining the entrenched power of

INDIA: Economic policy outlookINDIA: Budget may disappoint reform hopes The government is preparing a budget, to be read on July #. Fulsome promises made during and after the general election have raised expectations of the re-elected government#;s first

JAPAN: Growth strategyJAPAN: Growth planning awaits election and recovery Japan#;s lack of a long-term plan for economic recovery. Unlike China, which has a strategy for promoting domestic demand and reducing reliance on exports, Japan has focused more on

RUSSIA: WTO strategyRUSSIA: Protectionism may have driven abrupt WTO shift Representatives from Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus are meeting World Trade Organisation (WTO) officials in Geneva from June ##-## to discuss how they can accede to the WTO as a

PERU: Recession tollPERU: Recession takes toll on growth Economic performance in the first quarter and prospects for the rest of the year. One of Latin America#;s fastest growing economies in recent years has seen growth cut abruptly. There is

UNITED STATES: Fighting joblessnessUNITED STATES: Efforts to fight joblessness will surge The government#;s weekly employment report today is expected to show another rise of at least ###,### in initial unemployment insurance claims. Welfare reform in #### made undertaking

MONGOLIA: New presidentMONGOLIA: Elbegdorj moves into the mining spotlight Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj was sworn in as president today. With power split between the newly elected opposition Democratic Party president and a parliament dominated by the Mongolian People#;s Revolutionary Party there

SAUDI ARABIA: Shia tensionsSAUDI ARABIA: Regime lacks Shia strategy The Saudi authorities are watching events in Iran closely, aware that the Shia in Eastern Province last took to the streets in large numbers after the #### Iranian revolution. In recent

INTERNATIONAL: Disparate BRICsINTERNATIONAL: BRIC summit belies divergent interests Heads of state from Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) held their first summit on June ##. Aside from affirming a shared interest in bolstering their respective influence in an increasingly multipolar

MAURITANIA: Dakar AccordMAURITANIA: Dakar Accord clouds presidential outlook Mauritania#;s post-coup presidential election is now set for July ##. According to the Dakar Accord signed on June #, Mauritania#;s junta has delayed its post-coup presidential election from

INTERNATIONAL: ProfitsINTERNATIONAL: #;Profits without equity#; is unstable Profits and capitalism. The economic crisis in part is an exposure of the pivotal status of profits in advanced economies: many of the highly leveraged firms and banks now being bailed out or

POLAND: EP evaluationPOLAND: PO does well but tensions may emerge by #### The implications of the European Parliament (EP) elections for Polish politics. The EP election was a highly important popularity test for parties ahead of next year#;s presidential

URUGUAY: Mujica market movesURUGUAY: Mujica moves to reassure markets GDP contracted by #.#% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of ####, the Central Bank reported on June ##. Leading presidential hopeful Senator Jose Mujica, a former guerrilla leader

GEORGIA: Healthcare reformGEORGIA: State targets deteriorated health system Government moves to improve healthcare. Because of its relatively small population and even smaller population density, Georgia has always been preoccupied with the issue of population increase, with a particular focus on

INTERNATIONAL: Civil aviationINTERNATIONAL: Struggling aviation faces finance risk The biennial Paris Airshow opened on June ##, against a bleak background for the world#;s civil aviation market. In normal circumstances, the Paris show would be punctuated by major orders for

NORTH KOREA: Fraught successionNORTH KOREA: Succession process risks failing North Korea denies that leader Kim Jong-il#;s son Kim Jong-un made a secret trip to China earlier this month, reports today say. This is unlikely to end speculation

GABON: After BongoGABON: Bongo death leaves political system in doubt The state funeral was held yesterday for President Omar Bongo Ondimba, who died on June #. The international presence at the ceremony bore witness to Bongo#;s diplomatic importance as

US/AFGHANISTAN: McChrystal outlookUS/AFGHANISTAN: Major change unlikely under McChrystal General Stanley McChrystal on June ## took control of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan. In the run-up to the August ## Afghan elections, McChrystal#;s main priorities will

INTERNATIONAL: EM exchange ratesINTERNATIONAL: Emerging markets embrace flexibility Exchange-rate policy trends in the emerging markets. Emerging-market central banks are making use of reserve war-chests built in the expansion phase of the post-#### business cycle. If the

LATIN AMERICA: Expanding state activism?LATIN AMERICA: Crisis may provoke sharp policy shifts The impact of the financial crisis on medium- and long-term development policy. Global financial crises have traditionally triggered radical policy shifts in Latin America. The current

ISRAEL: Netanyahu foreign policy speechISRAEL: Netanyahu foreign policy speech shifts onus Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu made a key foreign policy speech on June ##. President Barack Obama#;s speech in Cairo, Netanyahu#;s speech in response, and the extraordinarily hostile

PORTUGAL: Socratic problemPORTUGAL: European poll points to trouble for Socrates The outlook for Portugal#;s Socialist government. The June # European Parliament election was the first in a series of three major votes in Portugal, with both legislative and local

UNITED STATES: Medical bankruptciesUNITED STATES: Medical bankruptcies spur health reform President Barack Obama yesterday told the American Medical Association -- the main US doctors#; association -- that inaction on healthcare reform would lead to "an escalating burden on our families and businesses

BRAZIL: Recovery risksBRAZIL: Recovery risks remain despite positive signs The Central Bank cut the benchmark rate to a record low of #.##% on June ##, a day after the government confirmed a first quarter GDP contraction of #.#

RUSSIA: Dagestan destabilisationRUSSIA: Stability in Dagestan is increasingly fragile On June ##, a Dagestani police chief was assassinated in the republican capital of Makhachkala. The killing is the latest in a series of such incidents, suggesting that this multi-ethnic

SCIENCE/TECHNOLOGY: Internet controlSCIENCE/TECHNOLOGY: Governments seek internet control Development of government systems to monitor, filter and regulate the internet. As internet speed and reach expand worldwide, governments are increasing investment in technologies to capture, analyse and control the flow

INDIA: Energy reformINDIA: Moment may pass on energy reform The outlook for energy pricing reform. Last year#;s spike in international energy prices cost India hevily in terms of state subsidies and damage to domestic energy industries. The price regime

KOSOVO: Leadership lackKOSOVO: Policy failings complicate insecure statehood On June ##, Freedom House joined other international organisations in calling on the government to investigate death threats against an investigative journalist. Such threats against journalists are emblematic of the challenges facing

IRAN: Election coup?IRAN: Implausible landslide points to massive fraud Mir Hossein Moussavi today called off a planned protest demonstration after the Interior Ministry banned it and amid rumours that police would be issued with live ammunition. Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad

INDIA: BJP introspectionINDIA: Future is highly uncertain for BJP Yashwant Sinha, a former finance minister, on June ## tendered his resignation as vice-president of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). A period of silence following last month#;s disappointing general

BELARUS/RUSSIA: Rising tensionsBELARUS/RUSSIA: Alliance frays as interests diverge President Alyaksandr Lukashenka boycotted yesterday#;s Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) summit in Moscow. Lukashenka#;s snub only exacerbates the rising tensions between Moscow and Minsk, which have centred in

AFRICA: Downturn managementAFRICA: Policy options limited for managing downturn Options for mitigating the effects of the global downturn in Africa. Despite increased governance reforms during the past decade, African governments#; capacities for effective economic crisis management are limited. Although Africa

EL SALVADOR: Funes outlookEL SALVADOR: Funes impresses private sector Outlook for new President Mauricio Funes. The new leader has set out to show determination and moderation. President Mauricio Funes announced a "progressive and pluralist" government, committed to a "peaceful and

CZECH REPUBLIC: Weathering stormCZECH REPUBLIC: Reform best answer to external threat The strength and resilience of the economy amid global turmoil. The economy has largely justified the #### decision to declare the transition complete, by its stability and relative strength

US/INTERNATIONAL: Fuel efficiencyUS/INTERNATIONAL: Fuel efficiency needs broad action New US vehicle fuel efficiency standards. New vehicle fuel efficiency laws will increase pressure on the automotive sector -- already in crisis due to the economic downturn -- to shift towards smaller

SOUTH KOREA: Regional policySOUTH KOREA: Quest for regional balance is elusive Issues of balanced development and regional equality in South Korea. Balanced development, and equality more generally, are concerns which exercise many in South Korea. Several separate issues -- some more

PAKISTAN: Securing SwatPAKISTAN: Swat reconstruction will test state capacity The government of North-west Frontier Province (NWFP) has set a June ## deadline to establish healthcare and electricity provision for civilians returning to the Swat valley, Information Minister Iftikhar Hussain

TUNISIA: Succession issuesTUNISIA: Election raises succession issue Presidential elections are due to be held in October. President Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali is seeking a fifth consecutive five-year term. He is credited by some as bringing stability to a

UNITED STATES: Recovery signals?UNITED STATES: Data signal recovery but risks remain Retail sales rose #.#% month-on-month in May -- although excluding gasoline sales, which have risen in line with higher oil prices, the rise would have been

PARAGUAY: Fiscal frictionsPARAGUAY: Congress wages fiscal war on executive Renewed congressional rejection of the introduction of personal income tax. The decision is a major setback for the government#;s plans to finance an increase in social expenditure and its land

LATVIA: Devaluation pressuresLATVIA: Speculation mounts against lat stability The government sold ## million lats (## million dollars) in one-month Treasury bills yesterday. The larger auction of ## million lats in T-bills on June # attracted no bids, showing

SCIENCE/TECHNOLOGY: Influenza pandemicSCIENCE/TECHNOLOGY: Pandemic raises flu planning need The World Health Organization (WHO) yesterday raised the worldwide pandemic alert level for the A(H#N#) influenza virus to phase #, the highest point. The disease has been confirmed in

MOLDOVA: Fractious eliteMOLDOVA: New elections will not resolve deep divisions On June ##, influential former Parliamentary Speaker Marian Lupu announced he would resign from the ruling Communist Party. Lupu#;s defection adds uncertainty to an already chaotic and deeply divided

EUROPE: EIB profileEUROPE: Conservative bank reacts to pressure to lend A profile of the European Investment Bank (EIB). The EIB has accepted larger lending and advisory roles in trying to counteract the global recession. Its extra duties flow from previous