Oxford Analytica

SWEDEN: Presidential prospectsSWEDEN: Well-run EU presidency is hostage to events French President Nicolas Sarkozy today postponed a visit to Sweden due on June #, in the context of public disagreement over whether EU enlargement should extend to Turkey. Stockholm

IRAN: Moussavi profileIRAN: Moussavi presents centrist alternative A profile of Iranian presidential candidate Mir Hossein Moussavi. The uncharismatic Moussavi has emerged as the principal challenger to incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad in Iran#;s June ## presidential elections. He is

US/CHINA: Economic talksUS/CHINA: Exchange-rate picture is shifting US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will meet Chinese officials in Beijing on June # and #. New developments may affect bilateral economic discussions on exchange rate policy. These include fluctuations

ARMENIA: Yerevan electionsARMENIA: City vote comes at tough time for regime Local council elections will be held in Yerevan on May ##. The elections will be a contest between the ruling Armenian Republican Party and the opposition Armenian National Congress

NIGERIA: JTF offensiveNIGERIA: JTF offensive jeopardises oil output A military offensive against militants in the Niger Delta has been under way for two weeks, amid fresh attacks on oil industry infrastructure. In the context of rising oil prices, Nigeria may

LATIN AMERICA/US: Energy partnership?LATIN AMERICA/US: Energy partnership needs definition Prospects for an Energy and Climate Partnership for the Americas. At the Fifth Summit of the Americas, held in Trinidad and Tobago April ##-##, ####, US President

ECUADOR: Economic woesECUADOR: Economic woes could undermine stability The prospects for greater political stability. Long one of Latin America#;s most politically volatile countries, Ecuador seems likely to enjoy a modicum of institutional stability following last month#;s re-election

US/MALAYSIA: Cautious courtshipUS/MALAYSIA: Despite trade friction, ties advance US-Malaysia relations under President Barack Obama. During his visit to Washington earlier this month, Malaysian Foreign Minister Anifah Aman was anxious to contain tensions over worsening bilateral trade and

UNITED KINGDOM: Defence choicesUNITED KINGDOM: Defence staff face unpleasant choices How the United Kingdom can manage constraints on its defence budget. Defence is likely to bear some share of the future cuts in UK public spending, at a time when

RUSSIA: History frontRUSSIA: #;Control#; over history will prove elusive The president#;s new #;history commission#;. The commission has ostensibly been set up to defend Russia#;s interests in response to arguments in some former Soviet states that the Soviet Union

INDIA/PAKISTAN: Kashmir opportunityINDIA/PAKISTAN: Window of opportunity opens on Kashmir The outlook for relations between India and Pakistan. The formation of a new Congress party-led government in India and the Pakistani military#;s intensification of operations against the

UNITED STATES: Auto restructuringUNITED STATES: Automakers may re-emerge strengthened General Motors bondholders yesterday rejected a debt-to-equity swap, pushing the automaker closer to bankruptcy. The economic crisis has accelerated ongoing restructuring in US (and global) auto production. However

JAPAN: DPJ under HatoyamaJAPAN: DPJ faces tough election under Hatoyama The selection of Yukio Hatoyama as president of the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). The DPJ tries to project an image of unity and strength but it has significant

SOUTH AFRICA: Socioeconomic challengesSOUTH AFRICA: Socioeconomic policy remains major thorn The challenge of socioeconomic policy delivery. Despite ## years of post-apartheid governance, South Africa is confronted by widespread popular dissatisfaction over service delivery. When apartheid gave way to democracy

LATIN AMERICA: Returning investments?LATIN AMERICA: Investors return to equity markets The significant recent increase of money flows into Latin American stocks and currencies. Short-term investor confidence is returning to the region after last year#;s sell-off. The

UNITED STATES: Financial services lobbyingUNITED STATES: Lobbying promotes policy consensus The surge in federal business lobbying since the ####s. Recent media reports have documented how businesses involved in sub-prime lending facilitated the sector#;s expansion, in part, through government

INDONESIA: Growth outlookINDONESIA: Economy outperforms the region The outlook for Indonesia#;s economy. A growth rate of #.#% year-on-year in the first quarter of #### has made Indonesia the best-performing economy in South-east Asia. Yet

NORTH KOREA: Crisis conundrumNORTH KOREA: Fighting talk follows nuclear test North Korea said today that attempts to search its vessels at sea would prompt a "powerful military strike". Following its April rocket launch and this week#;s nuclear test, North

YEMEN: Southern secession threatYEMEN: Southern secession threat adds to instability Police broke up protests in Aden on May ## -- Yemen#;s National Day -- while the first military parade in ## years was held as part of celebrations in Sana#;a

LITHUANIA: Dalia GrybauskaiteLITHUANIA: President changes more than foreign policy A profile of President-elect Dalia Grybauskaite. The ##-year-old appears to be a visionary political leader, who may impart more faith and self-confidence to the Lithuanians. However, she

UGANDA: Opposition woesUGANDA: Opposition divisions undermine #### chances The Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) and allied parties yesterday criticised the Democratic Party, following a poor opposition showing in local by-elections last week. The FDC faced an extremely difficult year

HAITI: Aid pledgesHAITI: Aid pledges fall short Former US President Bill Clinton#;s appointment as UN special envoy to Haiti was announced last week. Clinton#;s appointment reflects renewed engagement with Haiti, after failure to raise ### million dollars in

RUSSIA/VATICAN: Patriarch-pope prospectsRUSSIA/VATICAN: Patriarch-pope summit is in the offing Orthodox-Catholic relations in Patriarch Kirill#;s first ### days as head of the Russian Orthodox Church. A Russian Orthodox patriarch has not met a Roman Catholic

INDIA: Dangerous neighbourhoodINDIA: Government faces daunting regional agenda Former Chief Minister of Karnataka SM Krishna was appointed foreign minister on May ##. Krishna is a new face in a cabinet otherwise dominated by heavyweights from the previous administration. He takes

BALKANS/US: Biden is backBALKANS/US: Will previous failed policy be repeated? US Vice President Joseph Biden paid a three-day visit to the Balkans last week. Public apathy, regional tensions, political deadlocks and endemic corruption across the region, accompanied

EUROPEAN UNION: Election timeEUROPEAN UNION: Weak turnout to elect powerful chamber The outlook for European elections on June #-#. Despite the increasing powers of the European Parliament, a majority of voters are expected to stay at home during next

AFRICA: North-South CorridorAFRICA: Donor support boosts North-South Corridor The Development Bank of Southern Africa is due in June to receive the first ### million dollar tranche of donor funding for the proposed North-South Corridor rehabilitation project. The

JAPAN: Birth rate policiesJAPAN: Birth rate weighs on government and business Policies to increase the birth rate in Japan. A new crop of policies aimed at increasing the birth rate has emerged, with the focus shifting already from supporting child

INTERNATIONAL: Health outlookINTERNATIONAL: Social programmes are key to growth Outlook on health and education in developing countries. Developing countries are being hit hard by the global economic crisis and the food crisis. As such, the World Bank is stepping up

CHILE: Climate concernsCHILE: Climate concerns raise planning pressures The potential adverse effects of climate change in Chile. New studies carried out by Chilean scientists show that, although Chile has more options to adapt to climate change than other South American

UZBEKISTAN: Isolated economyUZBEKISTAN: Isolation shields economy from recession The implications of the global recession for the Uzbek economy. Financial isolation and higher prices for gas exports have protected Uzbekistan from global turbulence. However, declining workers#; remittances will have negative implications

UNITED STATES: Sunstein profileUNITED STATES: Sunstein aims to modernise regulation A profile of Cass Sunstein, President Barack Obama#;s de facto #;regulatory czar#;. Sunstein, Obama choice to head the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA), has spent

GULF STATES: Monetary union doubtsGULF STATES: UAE withdrawal undermines monetary union On May ##, the United Arab Emirates announced its withdrawal from the planned Gulf Monetary Union. After repeated questioning of the original #### deadline by Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC

SRI LANKA: Reconciliation outlookSRI LANKA: Rajapakse#;s allies may resist devolution The government yesterday pledged to resettle within six months the bulk of civilians displaced in its final push against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). The LTTE#;s

MALAWI: Wa Mutharika triumphantMALAWI: President in strong position to tackle economy Bingu wa Mutharika is due to be sworn in for his second term as president today. The president#;s re-election, although flawed, ensures continuity in economic policy and

INTERNATIONAL: Debt reductionINTERNATIONAL: Medium-term fiscal consolidation is key Standard and Poor#;s (S&P) yesterday warned the UK government over rising debt levels. In advanced economies, bank bailouts, fiscal stimuli and increased spending on unemployment benefits, as well as

SOUTH KOREA: Environmental infrastructureSOUTH KOREA: Rivers project meets canal controversy The Lee Myung-bak administration#;s green infrastructure plans. Critics claim the government#;s ideas are environmentally unsound, and a ploy to resurrect the president#;s vision of a nationwide

UKRAINE: Continuing crisisUKRAINE: Real sector is yet to share financial upturn The State Statistics Committee (SSC) announced on May ## that industrial output fell in April by #.#% month-on-month and by ##.#% year-on-year. Output

LATIN AMERICA: Recessionary remittancesLATIN AMERICA: Remittances face recessionary rout Falling remittances to Latin America and the Caribbean. The worsening of the global economic crisis is taking its toll on the volume of remittances that millions of people from Latin America

INDIA: Growth outlookINDIA: Cautious reforms likely despite poll outcome The Bombay Sensex Index has surged more than ##% this week so far on positive reactions to the general election result. With the economy undergoing a sharp slowdown, the election result

UNITED STATES: Florida politicsUNITED STATES: Florida political trends aid Democrats Florida Governor Charlie Crist has begun to raise funds in his bid for the seat of retiring Republican Senator Mel Martinez in ####. Crist, a popular moderate Republican who endorsed

GULF STATES: Infrastructure investmentGULF STATES: Crisis slows infrastructure plans for now The impact of the economic crisis on Gulf infrastructure projects. After a period of fiscal conservatism despite increased oil prices, Gulf governments have since #### embarked on large-scale

SOUTH AFRICA: Renewable energySOUTH AFRICA: Renewable energy strategy takes shape The South African Environment, Energy and Treasury Ministries are drafting a new government energy and climate change strategy due to be unveiled by September. The document will form the basis

INTERNATIONAL: Nuclear buildINTERNATIONAL: Nuclear renaissance gets underway Nuclear new build. Slower economic growth in Asia is providing an opportunity to push forward nuclear programmes at the expense of coal-fired generation capacity. The slowdown in power demand in Asia is

GUATEMALA: Colom crisisGUATEMALA: Political crisis weakens Colom A demonstration on May ## gathered ##,### signatures calling for the lifting of President Alvaro Colom#;s immunity. A video that a lawyer murdered on May ## left behind has caused a

EUROPE: Relative recoveriesEUROPE: Western half is abler to weather global storm The relative potentials of Western and Central-Eastern Europe for recovery. Which is better poised to recover will have an impact on income convergence between the two halves of

UNITED KINGDOM: Defence capacityUNITED KINGDOM: Rights ruling adds to military woes The Court of Appeal in London upheld on May ## a landmark ruling to the effect that UK soldiers are protected by the #### Human Rights Act, wherever in

US/ISRAEL: Obama-Bibi talksUS/ISRAEL: Obama returns ties to traditional norm Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat yesterday expressed disappointment with the outcome of Monday#;s meeting between President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu in Washington. Even after

NIGER: Tandja#;s calculusNIGER: Tandja seeks peace before third term On May ##, Niger#;s main insurgent group rejected government claims that it had agreed to disarm and demobilise. Niger#;s mainly Tuareg northern insurgents have been pursuing Libyan-mediated

INTERNATIONAL: Tax engineeringINTERNATIONAL: Tax engineering remains a challenge Tax engineering as a response to the economic crisis. National governments increasingly are seeking to respond to the economic crisis by reforming taxation. While tax can have an important impact on economic

JAPAN: Yen internationalisationJAPAN: Tokyo will look to position the yen Japanese politicians#; encouragement of the United States to issue yen-denominated bonds. The development is likely to revive debate over the international role of the yen at a time when

SCIENCE/TECHNOLOGY: Semantic publishingSCIENCE/TECHNOLOGY: Semantic publishing gains ground The future of scientific journal publishing. Elsevier, the world#;s largest publisher of scientific, technical and medical journals, since last June has been conducting a competition to find new ways of

LATIN AMERICA: Narcotics industryLATIN AMERICA: Narcotics industry shifts gravity Structural changes in the Latin American narcotics industry. Major shifts in the narcotics industry over the last ## years have led to a more diffuse and entrenched drug trade, and could

BELARUS: Economic exigenciesBELARUS: Recession reveals cracks in economic model The implications of the global recession for Belarusian economic policy. Speculation about a possible economic transformation in Belarus has intensified over the last several years, but so far, no significant progress

US/AFRICA: Obama agendaUS/AFRICA: Obama faces unrealistic policy expectations President Barack Obama will make his first official visit to sub-Saharan Africa on July ##, when he travels to Ghana, the White House announced on Saturday. The Africa trip

KUWAIT: Election outcomeKUWAIT: Election outcome highlights desire for change The general election on May ## returned four women to the National Assembly, while Sunni Islamists lost ground. The victory of four women, one of whom came first in her district

VIETNAM: FDI reformVIETNAM: Government moves to shore up investment flows The government is planning a series of measures to increase Vietnam#;s attractiveness as a destination for foreign direct investment (FDI). Many multinational firms have positive views of Vietnam as

AUSTRALIA: Recession budgetAUSTRALIA: Budget targets an early rebound Opinion polls revealed yesterday that Prime Minister Kevin Rudd#;s support has slipped following the budget. While Australians face a bleaker outlook in the current economic climate, the Rudd Labor government#;s

EUROPE/RUSSIA: South Stream success?EUROPE/RUSSIA: Sochi gas deals put South Stream ahead Russia signed deals with European energy companies on May ## advancing its South Stream gas pipeline project through South-eastern Europe. The agreements steal a march

SCIENCE/TECHNOLOGY: Marine ecosystemsSCIENCE/TECHNOLOGY: CO# affects marine ecosystems The response of marine ecosystems to elevated concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO#). Anthropogenic (human-originated) CO# emissions have been widely proclaimed as the major driving factor behind global warming and human

BOLIVIA: Falling growthBOLIVIA: Growth reduces poverty, but not much The impact of slower growth on social deprivation. High growth rates in recent years have helped bring down numbers living in poverty. However, the pattern of capital-intensive growth does little

INTERNATIONAL: SWFsINTERNATIONAL: Wealth funds remain popular The outlook for newly created sovereign wealth funds in ####. Although financial markets have collapsed, oil prices have dropped, and global imbalances are unwinding, countries around the world remain interested in setting up new

US/INTERNATIONAL: Tribunal turnaroundUS/INTERNATIONAL: Facts require Guantanamo backtrack The US administration announced on May ## that it was reinstating trials of Guantanamo detainees by special military commissions. The decision is an apparent U-turn on the very first decision

INDIA: Election resultINDIA: Left collapse allows Congress triumph The Congress party#;s United Progressive Alliance scored a resounding victory in general election results announced on Saturday. The outcome allows India to look forward to a more stable period of government

AFRICA: Decentralisation outlookAFRICA: Decentralisation fails to improve governance The outlook for decentralisation in Africa. Widespread international support for decentralisation in Africa has resulted in a wave of reforms across the continent. Despite the limited gains that have resulted in terms

BRAZIL: Social indicatorsBRAZIL: Social policy, birth rates improve indicators Factors favouring improvements in social indicators in Brazil. Wealth and incomes remain more concentrated in Brazil than in all but a few developing countries. However, a combination of important demographic changes

UK/US: Building societiesUK/US: Risks facing thrifts are underestimated The West Bromwich building society today denied that it was in rescue talks with UK financial regulators. There is a popular perception in the United Kingdom and the United States

CHILE: Contraction concernsCHILE: GDP may contract for first time in a decade Central Bank forecasts, released on May ##, confirm the likelihood of a GDP contraction in ####. The forecasts are a radical downgrade of the Bank#;s previous projections

RUSSIA: Energy charterRUSSIA: Energy proposal reflects global ambitions Russia#;s proposal for a new international energy treaty encompassing trade in electricity, the nuclear industry and fossil fuels. Moscow#;s proposal for a new global energy charter is an attempt to

SOUTH KOREA: Media politicsSOUTH KOREA: Moves on media prompt unease The Lee Myung-bak administration#;s attempts to influence the mass media. The government risks criticism and a backlash as a result of its heavy-handed efforts to control or

POLAND: Power paperPOLAND: Energy strategy is less revolution than reform The government#;s long-term aim of sustainable electricity generation. The new energy policy, necessitated by the EU#;s energy and climate-change package and Poland#;s booming demand for

TURKEY: Telecommunications liberalisationTURKEY: Telecoms liberalisation making progress Turk Telekom lost its monopoly on local telephone calls on May ##. The slow and uneven liberalisation of telecommunications services appears to have accelerated in recent months. Turkey#;s telecommunications market is worth

VENEZUELA: Oil obstaclesVENEZUELA: Oil services seizure presents new obstacles On May ##, the government reported that ## oil services companies had been taken over. Government moves to take control of oil services company assets may further affect already declining production

MEXICO: Refinery projectMEXICO: Doubts surround refinery project Uncertainty over construction of the first new oil refinery in ## years. The decision to promote the project has come at a timely moment, with public investment vital to reactivate the economy and

SOUTHERN AFRICA: Floods impactSOUTHERN AFRICA: Floods strain government capacity Serious flooding continues in Southern Africa. Heavy rains since the ####-## season have resulted in a second year of serious flooding, the worst for four decades in some regions. This

AUSTRALIA: National broadband plansAUSTRALIA: Risks accompany broadband upgrade plan The ## billion Australian dollar (##.# billion US dollar) plan to build a fast national optical fibre network. Last month#;s announcement of the project, to be completed in eight

INTERNATIONAL: Resurgent regionalismINTERNATIONAL: Regionalism will shape global politics The re-emergence of regionalism in international politics -- what it means and why it matters. States establish regional groupings to enhance their international profiles and resolve pressing security and economic issues. However

NEPAL: Political impasseNEPAL: Constitution-making at stake in negotiations Opposition leader Madhav Kumar Nepal yesterday held talks with caretaker Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal on the political deadlock that dates from the latter#;s resignation on May #. Dahal was

INTERNATIONAL: Intel caseINTERNATIONAL: Overdue change coming in IT antitrust The European Commission on May ## fined chipmaker Intel #.## billion euros (#.## billion dollars) for anti-competitive practices, its largest single fine against a company. The fine highlights

US/PAKISTAN: Alliance angstUS/PAKISTAN: Angst grows over Zardari standing, plans Pakistani commandos yesterday continued their drive to root out Taliban militants in the Swat Valley, North-west Frontier Province, amid fears that as many as #.# million civilians

ETHIOPIA: EPRDF strainsETHIOPIA: EPRDF tightens control as polls loom On May ##, the government postponed for two weeks the first court appearance of some ## figures accused of plotting terror attacks. The government detained dozens on April ##, including military

JAPAN: North Korean rocket falloutJAPAN: Pyongyang#;s test reveals security weaknesses Japan#;s security and the North Korean rocket launch last month. North Korea#;s firing off of a rocket was widely taken to be, in fact, a missile test

INTERNATIONAL: IMF modellingINTERNATIONAL: IMF modelling techniques need revision IMF global growth forecasting models. The IMF forecasts for #### growth are strikingly different from those published six months and one year ago. These forecasting problems suggest that the IMF#;s model

INTERNATIONAL: Rights recipesINTERNATIONAL: Crisis raises business, rights focus The new report of the UN Special Representative on human rights and business. The unanimous three-year extension in #### of the special representative#;s mandate signifies the importance that the UN

UNITED STATES: Bush legacy abroadUNITED STATES: Bush legacy abroad constrains Obama The foreign policy legacy of former President George W Bush, and how it shapes President Barack Obama#;s policy options. While Obama has signalled that his administration is willing

UNITED KINGDOM: Benefit cheatsUNITED KINGDOM: System suffers from MPs graft row UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown yesterday proposed independent scrutiny of MPs#; expenses, in an effort to contain a scandal on the subject. UK public opinion of politicians -- already at

GULF STATES: Sovereign wealth fundsGULF STATES: Sovereign wealth funds shift focus A new Saudi sovereign wealth fund (SWF), Sanabil al-Saudia, started operations last week. Gulf SWFs have recently initiated major changes in their investment strategy. They have shifted away

NEW ZEALAND: Budget outlookNEW ZEALAND: Recession budget will look ahead The Ministry of Social Development announced job cuts yesterday. The government#;s financial position is deteriorating, as the budget due out later this month will confirm, and staff are being

ARGENTINA: Controversial candidacyARGENTINA: Kirchner candidacy may prove an #;own goal#; On May #, former President Nestor Kirchner confirmed his candidacy for the June ## legislative elections. The mid-term elections appear increasingly focused on defining presidential candidacies for ####, rather

EGYPT: Bird flu patternEGYPT: Bird flu outbreak creates mutation risk Increasing avian influenza cases. With the recent international outbreak of A(H#N#), the continued inability of Egyptian health officials effectively to reduce avian influenza infections through public education, and changing

INTERNATIONAL: Government debtINTERNATIONAL: Government debt problems will persist Budget deficits and rising public debt. There has been a rapid growth in government borrowing and public debt ratios in the current recession. These debt problems are likely to be persistent. They

RUSSIA: MVD misconductRUSSIA: Police homicide highlights reform failures The implications of a police officer#;s April ## murder of three passers-by in a Moscow supermarket. The killings sparked outrage among Russian lawmakers, human rights groups and citizens. Although the

BOSNIA: Economic emergencyBOSNIA: IMF deal could save BiH -- or tip it over edge By end-May, all levels of government must rebalance their budgets for the IMF to confirm its stand-by arrangement (SBA). Bosnia#;s economic demise may have

TURKEY: Davutoglu profileTURKEY: Davutoglu faces practical foreign policy tests A profile of Ahmet Davutoglu, foreign policy adviser to Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who was appointed foreign minister in the reshuffle on May #. Like the former US statesman Henry

INDONESIA: Islam and politicsINDONESIA: Islamist forces reach limits of expansion Islamic political parties suffered substantial losses in legislative election results announced on May #. Such parties had gained ground in previous elections and have backed high-profile legislative efforts to

URUGUAY: Debt deteriorationURUGUAY: Pre-election pressures fan fiscal fears The government is to increase public debt issues this year, after admitting that public finances have deteriorated more than anticipated. The recognition that debt-taking will exceed the level originally authorised

CHINA/AFRICA: CADF outlookCHINA/AFRICA: CADF ramps up African investments The outlook for the China-Africa Development Fund (CADF). In ####, the CADF invested more than ### million dollars in Chinese firms operating in Africa; the remaining ### million of

UKRAINE: Agricultural aspirationsUKRAINE: Structural challenges hold back agriculture Prospects and challenges facing the agricultural sector. The Ukrainian authorities are trying to find new ways to pull the country out of a severe recession, and one possible means is the more

SOUTH AFRICA: Cabinet signalsSOUTH AFRICA: Zuma handles cabinet changes smoothly President Jacob Zuma named his cabinet yesterday. Zuma#;s administration will be generally welcomed for its balance between continuity and change. However, for the longer term there are potentially weak