Oxford Analytica

US/MIDDLE EAST: Obama-Netanyahu tensionsUS/MIDDLE EAST: Obama policy spurs tension with Israel Palestinian National Authority President Mahmoud Abbas on April ## rejected Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu#;s demand -- unsupported by Washington -- that he recognise Israel as a

INDIA: Swing stateINDIA: Uttar Pradesh will shape election outcome Voters in Uttar Pradesh (UP) state are among those going to the polls today in a third phase of India#;s April ## - May ## general election. With ## out of

SOUTH KOREA: By-election signalsSOUTH KOREA: Voters reject mainstream parties Independents or radicals won four out of five by-elections yesterday. The results have affected President Lee Myung-bak#;s authority and also highlight the potential for increased factionalism. In

ISRAEL: Stimulus budgetISRAEL: Stimulus budget to provoke battles over cuts Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu presented the ####-## budget framework to the cabinet on April ##. Due to the early elections, Israel has been without a budget for the current

GERMANY: Von Klaeden and RoettgenGERMANY: Duo forms core of new political generation A profile of Christian Democrat (CDU) foreign affairs spokesman and party treasurer Eckart von Klaeden, and economic specialist Norbert Roettgen. The two men, both approaching their mid-##s

CIS: Regional aidCIS: Russia#;s aid to its neighbours has limits Moscow#;s efforts to provide aid to economically weakened former Soviet states. Making investments and giving out loans have become particularly risky lines of business amid a global recession

INTERNATIONAL: IMF-World Bank meetingsINTERNATIONAL: Strengthened IMF has clear limitations The IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings took place on April ##-##. Decisions emerging from the meetings tended to confirm the IMF#;s central role in restoring global financial stability

BRAZIL: Electricity outlookBRAZIL: Electricity investments may prove elusive Outlook for electricity output and demand. A sharp fall in demand from industry, together with record summer rains which have raised water levels at hydroelectric plants to comfortable levels, have removed the

CHINA: Energy efficiencyCHINA: Energy efficiency depends on recovery path Energy intensity dropped almost #.#% in the first quarter, China reported yesterday. Energy requirements in the production per unit of GDP are coming down, but looking ahead, achievement of Beijing

ARGENTINA: Debt difficultiesARGENTINA: Debt repayments face worsening panorama Former President Nestor Kirchner warned yesterday that Argentina could again "explode" into crisis if the government loses its congressional majority in the June mid-term elections. In early April, the freezing of

ECUADOR: Correa re-electionECUADOR: Correa faces serious challenges President Rafael Correa on April ## easily won the first general elections held under the new constitution. While results reflected the president#;s continuing popularity and weakness of his opponents, he faces

RUSSIA: Military intelligenceRUSSIA: GRU chief#;s dismissal opens door to reform On April ##, long-standing military intelligence chief General Valentin Korabelnikov was removed from his position. Korabelnikov#;s future had been in question for months. The removal of such

AFRICA: Telecoms outlookAFRICA: Telecoms should grow despite downturn Prospects for African telecoms -- and their impact on African economies -- during the global downturn. The growth of African telecoms is widely believed to have contributed strongly to the continent#;s economic growth

INTERNATIONAL: Water risksINTERNATIONAL: Corporate water risks are rising Corporate efforts to manage risks arising from water usage. Businesses are under increasing pressure to show commitment to sustainability in water use. However, the costs will fall unevenly across the corporate sector

INTERNATIONAL: Modelling failuresINTERNATIONAL: Caution will slow economic recovery The effect of cautious planning assumptions on economic recovery. The widespread failure of forecasters to predict a recession, let alone one of the global reach and magnitude now being witnessed, has damaged

FINLAND: Frightful forecastsFINLAND: Economy takes a hit, but not government yet Unemployment rose for the fifth consecutive month in March, reaching #.#%, according to figures released by Statistics Finland on April ##. Finland is very sensitive to the implosion

US/PAKISTAN: Taliban advanceUS/PAKISTAN: Taliban advance offers policy opportunity Taliban militants in control of the Swat valley last week publicly offered protection to extremists from the Middle East, including al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden. The imposition of an

EUROPE: Islam and public lawEUROPE: Islam and public law still at odds A motion to replace mandatory ethics classes with religious education in Berlin schools failed on April ##. The Berlin vote on religious and ethical education again highlighted the

INDIA: Muslim voteINDIA: Muslim voters seek greater leverage Muslim voting in the present Indian elections. Two weeks into the voting process, the electoral situation remains tight, and success for the major parties may come down to a small number of

CHINA: Healthcare movesCHINA: Beijing raises its healthcare game Healthcare reform and the implementation of new guidelines. China is undertaking much needed healthcare reform designed to achieve universal health insurance coverage and universal basic healthcare services. The extensive new plan builds

SOMALIA: International engagementSOMALIA: Questions remain for international engagement On April ##, an international donor conference in Brussels pledged more than ### million dollars to bolster security in Somalia. Severe insecurity and the absence of an effective central government in Mogadishu

ARMENIA: Anti-crisis measuresARMENIA: Little has been achieved in combating crisis Real GDP will contract by #% this year, the IMF#;s April World Economic Outlook predicts. Economic activity is falling to a record low as the economy undergoes an

MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL: Swine fluMEXICO/INTERNATIONAL: Swine flu has global impact The World Health Organisation (WHO) yesterday raised the level of influenza pandemic alert to phase four, indicating that the risk has increased. The danger of a global flu pandemic has

INTERNATIONAL: Recovery barriersINTERNATIONAL: Barriers to recovery still appear high Barriers to a rapid economic recovery. Amidst news of #;green shoots#; in the global economy, a variety of concerns suggest reason for caution. Signs of a deceleration in the rate of

US/INTERNATIONAL: #;Green#; agricultural policyUS/INTERNATIONAL: #;Green#; agenda may shift farm policy President Barack Obama#;s #;green#; policy agenda, and its potential impact on US agriculture and agribusiness. Democratic party control of the House of Representatives, Senate and White House

BAHRAIN: Shia unrestBAHRAIN: Pardons defuse Shia tensions temporarily The trial of two leading Shia figures which was due to start tomorrow has been called off after they received a royal pardon. The pardon signals the government#;s recognition that events

KOSOVO: Integrating SerbsKOSOVO: Stability hinges on broad Serb participation Decentralisation in Kosovo should not go ahead according to the Ahtisaari plan, Serbia#;s minister for Kosovo said on April ##. Belgrade#;s opposition risks scuppering decentralisation, the main policy of

SOUTH KOREA: Navy mattersSOUTH KOREA: Seoul opts for naval projection Seoul and the provincial government of Jeju agreed today on the building of a naval base on the island. Long-term plans for the South Korean navy reflect interest in

LATIN AMERICA/US: Sunny summitLATIN AMERICA/US: Atmospherics dominate cordial Summit The Fifth Summit of the Americas. US President Barack Obama was the undisputed centre of attention at his first meeting with hemispheric leaders, and it is clear that he

TURKMENISTAN: Gas exportsTURKMENISTAN: Ashgabat seeks new gas export options On April ##-##, Turkmenistan hosted an international energy security conference. The conference gave the Turkmen authorities an opportunity to emphasise their interest in diversifying gas export routes, particularly as falling

SOUTH AFRICA: Election implicationsSOUTH AFRICA: ANC stays on top amid opposition gains Official results were released on April ## from the country#;s fourth democratic general election. The ANC has shrugged off internal faction fighting and doubts over party leader

SCIENCE/TECHNOLOGY: Swine fluSCIENCE/TECHNOLOGY: Swine flu poses pandemic risk The Mexican government yesterday confirmed #,### cases, ### deaths and ### people hospitalised because of swine flu. A global human influenza pandemic is overdue in terms of previous pandemic

US/ASEAN: Burma shift?US/ASEAN: Clinton moves regional policy beyond Burma The administration of President Barack Obama is nearing completion of a review of Burma policy. The review will be seen as a test of the administration#;s policy

SYRIA: Economic reform outlookSYRIA: Economic reforms to continue, but speed unclear The outlook for economic reform in Syria. The recent opening of the Damascus stock exchange is the latest milestone in Syria#;s reform programme and underlines the government#;s

COMOROS: Sambi strategyCOMOROS: Sambi aims to bolster Union powers Union of Comoros President Ahmed Abdallah Sambi has approved the organisation of a constitutional referendum for May ##. The referendum seeks popular approval for as yet undefined amendments to the ####

INTERNATIONAL: G## futureINTERNATIONAL: G## effectiveness depends on commitment Will the G## remain a major global political force? Following the relative success of this month#;s G## Leaders#; Summit in London, the grouping is poised to become a major global forum

GREECE: Privatisation potentialGREECE: Obstacles limit privatisation revenue target In ####, Greece#;s debt-GDP ratio was the second-highest in the euro-area after Italy, Eurostat announced on April ##. The government#;s privatisation target is just #.#% of

RUSSIA: Foreign debtRUSSIA: External debts pose risks for companies Russian companies#; precarious access to external finance. Companies and banks that have raised finance externally are facing difficulties in rolling over their debts. State support is limited, so some instances of

INDIA: Pharmaceutical industryINDIA: Pharmaceutical industry is primed for growth Exports of Indian pharmaceutical products rose ##% for the year to March, according to an industry spokesman on April ##. Pharmaceutical firms are defying a broad-based slowdown in Indian exports

VENEZUELA: Petroleum pessimismVENEZUELA: PDVSA production pessimism persists Gauging the escalating impact of low oil prices on the Venezuelan oil industry. The fall in revenues from lower oil prices is forcing the Venezuelan government to confront some critical challenges, including the

UNITED STATES: Obama and civil rightsUNITED STATES: Obama will not push civil rights agenda The US Supreme Court yesterday heard oral arguments on a significant civil rights case testing hiring preferences in employment law. The case may lead to a

UNITED KINGDOM: Budget politicsUNITED KINGDOM: Labour government is on borrowed time UK Finance Minister Alistair Darling yesterday set out his budget for ####-##. His projections for growth and hence the public finances are optimistic. This means that additional tax

NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA: Kaesong outlookNORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA: Key economic zone is at risk South Korea and North Korea will probably hold more talks in Kaesong soon, a South Korean presidential office official is reported as saying today. A

INTERNATIONAL: Sino-Russian relationsINTERNATIONAL: Russia-China relations lose momentum Prospects and challenges in the Sino-Russian relationship. The #;strategic partnership#; between Russia and China is one of the success stories of the post-Cold War era. However, a growing asymmetry

ZIMBABWE: Coalition strainsZIMBABWE: Finances threaten coalition government The government announced on April ## that Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai will lead a delegation to Western countries in search of aid for the unity government. The coalition government of former ruling party

CENTRAL AMERICA: Drug panicCENTRAL AMERICA: Drug cartels threaten institutions The impact of Mexican cartels in neighbouring countries. Cooperation between the United States and Mexico can have only a limited impact on traffickers as long as they have other options. Joaquin

CHILE: Electricity issuesCHILE: Medium-term electricity supply looks secure Chile#;s future electricity supply challenges. After narrowly avoiding a power shortage last year, Chile#;s attention has turned to the longer-term challenges of developing an electricity matrix that provides

US/EU/RUSSIA: Troubled tiesUS/EU/RUSSIA: West could manage Russia more skilfully Attitudes and policies of the democratic West towards Russia. Although the Cold War has ended, Russia is often still regarded as an #;evil#; state. However, such an

EUROPEAN UNION: GM outlookEUROPEAN UNION: Crop stance might be counterproductive Today, Monsanto confirmed that it had initiated a legal challenge in a German court to an April ## ban by that country on cultivating MON### maize. German Minister of Agriculture

UNITED STATES: Financial stability updateUNITED STATES: Politics precludes quick banking fix Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner yesterday told Congress that "the evidence is mixed" as to whether US government bank bailouts had stimulated lending. Geithner#;s comments, coupled with the release

INTERNATIONAL: Youth unemploymentINTERNATIONAL: Youth to be hit hardest as jobs go The UK government today announced a # billion-pound (#.## billion dollars) programme to tackle youth unemployment. A surge in unemployment in all countries -- advanced, emerging and developing

INDIA: #;AfPak#; responseINDIA: US #;AfPak#; strategy meets with cool reaction India#;s response to US President Barack Obama#;s new strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan. US hopes that India can become a key player in its new #;AfPak#; strategy may

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES: Dubai outlookUNITED ARAB EMIRATES: Dubai repositions for recovery Dubai#;s economy will recover quicker than any other, according its ruler, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum on April ##. In February, the UAE Central Bank bought ##

CHINA: GEM start-upCHINA: GEM will finally take off, but cautiously The China Securities Regulatory Commission said on April ## that an independent committee to approve Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) listings would be operational by May #. The GEM will

PHILIPPINES: Bombings and kidnappingsPHILIPPINES: Hostage crisis shows military impotence The army has blamed two rogue commanders from the Moro Islamic Liberation Front for two separate bomb attacks on the island of Mindanao yesterday. The collapse of peace talks between the

INTERNATIONAL: Oil weaknessINTERNATIONAL: Outlook for oil prices looks weak The outlook for oil markets. Despite remaining close to ## dollars per barrel, oil market fundamentals remain weak and could deteriorate further. Crude oil futures dipped below ## dollars per barrel

BALKANS: Severe recessionBALKANS: Region will emerge slowly from global crisis The revised #### Serbian budget incorporating fiscal austerity measures in the context of the IMF stand-by arrangement goes to parliament this week. Other Balkan countries have already taken such

NAMIBIA: Election economyNAMIBIA: Floods compound election year economic woes Continued flooding has displaced more than ##,### people in northern Namibia since the start of last month. The unexpectedly severe flooding has caught authorities off-guard. The disaster has compounded

JAPAN: Pensions pressureJAPAN: Economic crisis impacts on pensions Pension reform and the economic crisis. The economic downturn creates a number of problems for the pension system, and dealing with pensions has political implications. Japan#;s economic crisis creates three sorts

GEORGIA: Orthodox authorityGEORGIA: Patriarch has used his influence wisely In his Easter sermon, Patriarch Ilia II called on the government and opposition to consider what was best for the country. The head of the Georgian Orthodox Church is using his

ARGENTINA: Debilitating dengueARGENTINA: Dengue reveals systemic weakness On April ## the pro-government bloc in the Senate delayed declaration of a health emergency in connection with the expanding dengue epidemic. The outbreak exposes the weaknesses of Argentina#;s outdated health

SCIENCE/TECHNOLOGY: Intelligent surveillanceSCIENCE/TECHNOLOGY: Web facilitates surveillance The rise of a surveillance society. Image-capture technologies, broadband networks and data management software will facilitate unprecedented extension of surveillance into public and private life -- by government, commercial operators and citizens

US/SOUTH ASIA: Kashmir conundrumUS/SOUTH ASIA: Kashmir talks could have wider impact A bombing in the Hangu district of Pakistan#;s North-west Frontier Province on April ## killed ## members of the security forces and two civilians. As

BANGLADESH: Resilient economyBANGLADESH: Economy is holding up well Finance Minister AMA Muhith yesterday announced a ### million dollar stimulus package for the three months ending June. Representatives of the important garment sector expressed dismay at the package, which focuses on

GULF STATES: Overseas agricultural investmentsGULF STATES: Saudis renew search for food security On April ##, Riyadh announced the launch of a ### million dollar state company to support Saudi private sector investments in agricultural projects abroad. GCC countries#; initiatives to

SEYCHELLES: Economic crisisSEYCHELLES: Economic crisis forces restructuring On April ##, the Paris Club of rich state creditors wrote off ##% of Seychelles#; debt to its members. As a heavily indebted, tourism-dependent microstate, Seychelles is extraordinarily vulnerable to international economic

SOUTH KOREA: Car consolidationSOUTH KOREA: Car hopes ride on Hyundai-Kia The outlook for South Korean car manufacturers. The economic downturn should encourage further consolidation in the car industry. The global market for cars has collapsed with the economic downturn

MEXICO/US: Obama visitMEXICO/US: Style is substance in Obama visit President Barack Obama visited Mexico City on April ##. Mexico was the first Latin American country on Obama#;s itinerary, indicating that it is a high priority. Both the

RUSSIA: Surgutneftegaz profileRUSSIA: Secretive Surgutneftegaz is on the rise A profile of Surgutneftegaz (SNG), Russia#;s fourth-largest oil company. Although SNG is privately owned, it has particularly close links with the Russian political leadership, and might have been acting

CEE: Straitened stimuliCEE: Local conditions limit fiscal stimulus option Fiscal policy in the ten Central-East European EU members (CEE-##) as they face the global downturn. In contrast to the major developed economies, the CEE-## have only limited

UNITED STATES: Social #;safety net#;UNITED STATES: Frayed social #;safety net#; faces crisis Although new unemployment insurance claims fell to ###,### last week, according to the Labor Department yesterday, the official jobless rate likely surged towards #% in March

MOROCCO: New party impactMOROCCO: New loyalist party fails to gain legitimacy The prospects for the Authenticity and Modernity Party (PAM), founded last year by a close confidant of the king. PAM aspires to be the country#;s much-needed progressive

GERMANY: Corporate cultureGERMANY: Change needed to cultures, not just rules Corporate culture in Germany. The resignation of Deutsche Bahn chief Hartmut Mehdorn on March ## arose from the latest in a series of corporate scandals in Germany, characterised by alleged

RUSSIA/EU: Insecure interdependenceRUSSIA/EU: Ties endure despite vulnerabilities The status of and prospects for progress in the EU-Russian relationship. The fourth round of negotiations on a new cooperation agreement between Russia and the EU took place at the

BALKANS: Western worriesBALKANS: Troubled region again engages West#;s concern Serbian President Boris Tadic is visiting the Decani monastery in Kosovo for Orthodox Easter, after strong EU and US pressure on Pristina, it was reported today. A potential confrontation has

URUGUAY: Banking uncertaintiesURUGUAY: Banks face increasing uncertainties Concerns over the banking sector as the economy cools. The economy has reached the end of a period of strong growth and is entering a phase of stagnation or slight recession, while the

BRAZIL: Economic updateBRAZIL: Small contraction looks increasingly likely The latest Central Bank survey predicts a contraction of #.#% this year. Negative growth of about #% is expected for the first quarter of this year, on top of a #

US/VIETNAM: Security tiesUS/VIETNAM: China concern promotes security ties The emerging, cautious trend towards closer US-Vietnam security ties. Tensions between the United States and China in the South China Sea -- spurred last month by an incident involving USNS

EUROPEAN UNION: Next CommissionEUROPEAN UNION: New Commission will be born weak Uncertainty over the next European Commission. Uncertainty over the fate of the Lisbon Treaty on EU reform has thrown into disarray the appointment of the next European Commission, whose

FIJI: Coup consolidationFIJI: Judges ousted and military reinforce their grip A decree on the judiciary and public appointments is being finalised, according to press reports today. Interim Prime Minister and military commander Voreqe Bainimarama is reasserting his authority following the

RUSSIA: Chechnya counter-terrorismRUSSIA: Rift emerges between Kadyrov and the Kremlin The Federal Security Service announced that the counter-terrorism operation in Chechnya ended today. The announcement is a major victory for Chechen strongman Ramzan Kadyrov, who had pushed the

INTERNATIONAL: Containing corsairsINTERNATIONAL: Military response cannot solve piracy Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said yesterday that the United States was exploring ways to facilitate prosecutions for piracy, freeze pirates#; assets and deter companies from trading with them. The successful resolution

INTERNATIONAL: Migration trendsINTERNATIONAL: Recession will hit low-skilled workers Impact of the global economic downturn on migration trends. There is increasing evidence that the global economic slowdown is having an impact on migration trends and policies. Low-skilled workers are

SOUTH AFRICA: Banking sectorSOUTH AFRICA: Banking sector faces lean times The outlook for South Africa#;s banking sector. A recent contraction in demand for credit reflects the more cautious lending policies of the four main retail banks. This comes against

ECUADOR: De-dollarisation debateECUADOR: Recession increases de-dollarisation risk The chances of de-dollarisation of Ecuador#;s economy. Dollarisation has brought price stability, and arguably contributed to solid economic growth since its introduction in ####. Until the current global financial

SINGAPORE: Deepening recessionSINGAPORE: Economy awaits recovery of export demand The economy shrank by an unprecedented ##.#% year-on-year in the first quarter, government figures showed yesterday. Singapore has entered a period of extremely sharp economic contraction. Although anticipating

ISRAEL: Lieberman profileISRAEL: Lieberman is key to coalition survival A profile of Avigdor (#;Yvette#;) Lieberman, Yisrael Beiteinu party leader and Israel#;s new foreign minister. Lieberman has become the anchor of the new Netanyahu coalition government. Without his party#;s

UNITED STATES: Credit card crisisUNITED STATES: Credit cards face regulatory clampdown The current political focus on #;abusive lending practices#;, and its likely effect on the financial services industry -- particularly credit card providers. Congress is considering measures that would impose tighter

CHINA/HONG KONG/MACAO: Security concernsCHINA/HONG KONG/MACAO: Security remains controversial Students at the University of Hong Kong began voting yesterday on a motion on Beijing#;s accountability over the lethal suppression of protests in China in ####. The

UNITED KINGDOM: Recession historyUNITED KINGDOM: Weak sterling is key to recovery The UK recession in historical perspective. The current recession is as severe as the worst post-#### recession. It is not yet as deep as the major downturns of

ROMANIA: Stabilising SBAROMANIA: IMF influences more realistic economic policy The government revised the budget on April ##, to comply with the IMF stand-by arrangement (SBA). A precautionary SBA was agreed at IMF staff level in March and will be

UKRAINE: Pipeline plansUKRAINE: GTS modernisation plans provoke Russian ire Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko will meet her Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, at the end of this month. The meeting will follow a recent telephone conversation between the premiers, which Tymoshenko asserted

COSTA RICA: Short-term outlookCOSTA RICA: Growth falls despite expansionary policies The impact of the global crisis in Costa Rica, and government response. As a small country dependent on exports to the United States and other developed countries, Costa Rica

THAILAND: Red-shirt crisisTHAILAND: Red-shirt crisis rocks government Anti-government protesters withdrew from their last stronghold in central Bangkok today. The retreat took place peacefully, but followed a bloody day of street confrontations yesterday in which activists confronted heavily

CHINA: Protests and responsesCHINA: Beijing can contain protests and dissent Protests over unpaid wages grew in Chongqing today. Popular protests have been mounting in China in recent years and the global financial and economic crisis is exacerbating this trend. Beijing

TURKEY: Privatisation outlookTURKEY: Privatisation to continue but below peak level Tomorrow is the closing date for the receipt of bids in the privatisation of the National Lottery. Turkey still has numerous assets to privatise, but financial and economic conditions are

ARGENTINA: Resurgent Radicals?ARGENTINA: Radicals hope for post-Alfonsin resurgence The political impact of the recent death of former President Raul Alfonsin. There has been widespread speculation that Alfonsin#;s death could reverse the decay suffered by his Radical party

INTERNATIONAL: Emerging marketsINTERNATIONAL: Emerging markets face dwindling options The implications of emerging market policymakers turning to currency manipulation as fiscal options run out. It has become clear that emerging markets are not protected from the crisis by the buoyancy of