EIU Country Analysis

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT OUTLOOK FOR ####-## DOMESTIC POLITICS: Mr Colom will continue to struggle with a weak congressional position, an obstinate opposition and splits within his own party. We expect political effectiveness to deteriorate further as the

Country Risk Service Guatemala November #### Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom Guatemala at a glance: ####-## OVERVIEW The president, Alavaro Colom Caballeros of the centre-left Unidad Nacionale de la Esperanza (UNE

Country Report Guatemala November #### Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For ##

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT OUTLOOK FOR ####-## DOMESTIC POLITICS: King Abdullah is expected to remain in power throughout the forecast period and beyond, supported by his loyal, well-trained and effective armed forces. In July the king appointed

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT OUTLOOK FOR ####-## DOMESTIC POLITICS: The president, Lee Myung-bak of the GNP, has his work cut out if he is to steer the economy through the current downturn and maintain support among the

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT OUTLOOK FOR ####-## DOMESTIC POLITICS: The political scene in Ghana is expected to remain relatively stable during the forecast period, although the acrimony between the NDC and the opposition New Patriotic Party (NPP) is

Country Risk Service Ghana November #### Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom Ghana at a glance: ####-## OVERVIEW The president, John Atta Mills, and his ruling National Democratic Congress (NDC) will have to

COUNTRY VIEW FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT OUTLOOK FOR ####-## DOMESTIC POLITICS: The president, Lee Myung-bak of the GNP, has his work cut out if he is to steer the economy through the current downturn and maintain support

Country Report Jordan November #### Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For ##

Country Forecast Jordan November #### The Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom Jordan at a glance: ####-## OVERVIEW The Economist Intelligence Unit believes that King Abdullah II will remain the dominant political figure

Country Risk Service Jordan November #### Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom Jordan at a glance: ####-## OVERVIEW The Economist Intelligence Unit believes that King Abdullah II will remain the dominant political figure

The approval ratings of the president, Alvaro Uribe, remain strong, reflecting his firm handling of ongoing disputes with the Venezuelan president, Hugo Chavez, and suggest he would easily win a third term, if he runs. An October poll shows that

Country Risk Service South Korea November #### Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom South Korea at a glance: ####-## OVERVIEW Despite signs that the domestic economy is stabilising, the president, Lee Myung-bak

Country Report Ghana November #### Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For ##

Policy towards private enterprise and competition ####-##: Pro-business policies compare favourably with peers, but shortcomings in enforcement and concentration in some sectors. Privatisation of some energy assets. Greater regulatory and tax stability underpinned by legal stability contracts. ####

Policy towards private enterprise and competition ####-##: The Grand National Party (GNP) government is more pro-business and supportive of the chaebol (conglomerates) than the previous administration. ####-##: The government tries to boost small and medium-sized enterprises

Country Risk Service Papua New Guinea November #### Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom Papua New Guinea at a glance: ####-## OVERVIEW The prime minister, Sir Michael Somare, is unlikely to complete a

In response to rising concerns about the impact of recent currency appreciation on the beleaguered export sector (and, subsequently, on the pace of the economic recovery), policymakers announced some intervention measures in October. Colombian exports (particularly manufacturing exports) have been

By-elections for five vacant seats in the National Assembly (parliament) were held on October ##th. All of the vacancies arose because sitting members had been debarred after convictions for electoral violations. In the five by-elections that took place

The green shoots of South Korea#;s economic recovery, which began to emerge in the second quarter of ####, have continued to remain in evidence, with real GDP maintaining its growth rate in the third quarter of the year, domestic

Country Forecast South Korea November #### Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom South Korea at a glance: ####-## OVERVIEW Despite signs that the domestic economy is stabilising, the president, Lee Myung-bak of

Country Risk Service Colombia November #### Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom Colombia at a glance: ####-## OVERVIEW Although time is running short, the Economist Intelligence Unit still expects the president, Alvaro Uribe

Country Report South Korea November #### Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For

Country Report Colombia November #### Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For ##

Country Forecast Colombia November #### Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom Colombia at a glance: ####-## OVERVIEW Although time is running short, the Economist Intelligence Unit still expects the president, Alvaro Uribe, to

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT OUTLOOK FOR ####-## DOMESTIC POLITICS: The prime minister of PNG, Sir Michael Somare, is unlikely to complete a second successive five-year term in office. In late July Sir Michael, who has faced an

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Current assessment Banking sector risk has continued to improve towards the lower (less risky) end of the BB rating band, as a stabilisation in global credit markets and Banrep monetary easing have eased pressures on

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT OUTLOOK FOR ####-## DOMESTIC POLITICS: Ongoing economic problems will increase public frustrations with the government of Mr Chavez, whose term runs until ####. However, his position will be protected by the recent clampdown on

COUNTRY VIEW FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT OUTLOOK FOR ####-## DOMESTIC POLITICS: Ongoing economic problems will increase public frustrations with the government of Mr Chavez, whose term runs until ####. However, his position will be protected by the recent

Although a legislative election is not due to take place until December ####, the issue is already dominating the political agenda. Recently-announced increases in social spending--particularly on healthcare--and references to the #### polls indicate that the president

In spite of speculation in recent months that the authorities were considering either introducing a dual exchange rate or devaluing the current BsF#.##:US$# fixed peg, in an attempt to address the significant overvaluation of the local currency

Country Risk Service Venezuela November #### Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom V enezuela at a glance: ####-## OVERVIEW Ongoing economic problems will increase public frustrations with the government, but a clampdown on

Country Report Mongolia November #### The Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For

Country Report Papua New Guinea November #### Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders

Policy towards private enterprise and competition ####-##: Nationalisation of a number of sectors marks a significant further deterioration in the environment for businesses already hit by aggressive land reform and unilateral contract revisions. Risk of expropriation as state funding

Country Report Venezuela November #### Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For ##

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Current assessment Banking sector risk remains CCC-rated, as the effects of the liquidity squeeze continue to be felt. In February the authorities took majority stakes in two of the leading private commercial banks, BTA

Country Forecast Venezuela November #### The Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom V enezuela at a glance: ####-## OVERVIEW Ongoing economic problems will increase public frustrations with the government, but a clampdown on

Policy towards private enterprise and competition ####-##: Some of the remaining large state-owned companies will be privatised, although progress will be slow. ####-##: Incentives for research and development, and for the import of modern technologies, are put

On October ##rd Mr Najib, who as well as being prime minister is also the minister of finance, presented the #### budget in parliament. Prior to the presentation the second finance minister, Ahmad Husni Hanadzlah, had already hinted that government

In a policy address to the Legislative Council (Legco) on October ##th, Hong Kong#;s chief executive, Donald Tsang, largely ignored the subject of political reform. However, he did announce that a public consultation on the issue will take place

Following meetings between the new chief executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA, which performs some of the functions of a central bank), Norman Chan, and Hong Kong#;s commercial banks, the HKMA is taking action to ward off

The ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition won the by-election for the seat of Bagan Pinang in the Negri Sembilan state assembly on October ##th. The seat fell vacant following the death of Azman Mohamad Noor, who was a member

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT India#;s government is set to approve a proposal to release monthly wholesale price figures instead of the weekly data that are published at present. The move would bring the release of India#;s inflation

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Without a fair and transparent presidential poll, Somaliland#;s desire for international recognition as a sovereign state will remain frustrated. Unless such recognition is obtained, access to international development finance will remain elusive, and investors

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Al-Shabab is accused by the US of having links with al Qaeda and espouses a similarly global jihadi ideology. Hizbul Islam, by contrast, is more domestically focused and claims that it would stop fighting

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT The second area of concern relates to the inadequate preparations for the forthcoming Commonwealth Games, which are to be staged in the capital, New Delhi, in October ####. India takes tremendous pride in hosting the

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT The disaster has repercussions for the political scene, in addition to economic policy and growth. Candidates for the presidential and congressional elections in May #### are due to register by the end of November and

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Many students were unable to gain the necessary documentation-up to #,### reportedly failed to take up their places at foreign universities as a result of the new regulations. The requirements were subsequently relaxed

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Strong growth of non-hydrocarbons exports is also rendered unlikely by the sharp contraction in regional trade under the impact of the global financial and economic crisis, with most countries in the Commonwealth of Independent

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT However, the halting in early April of most of Turkmenistan#;s exports of gas-which account for the bulk of the country#;s total exports-will have had a considerable impact on economic performance. The

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Although no longer at risk of total collapse, the Russian banking system faces huge hurdles. Early in the economic slump, the Russian financial system appeared at serious risk of imploding. It was weighed down by

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Russia#;s annual rate of consumer price inflation fell by a full percentage point to #.#% in October, when compared with the previous month. Goods price inflation slipped to #.#% year on year

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT However, continued political instability and a lack of clarity over pre- existing rights may deter foreign oil companies from bidding for exploration rights. According to an October report in a French-based newsletter, Africa Energy

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Consequently, two days after the closure of the legislature, a delegation led by the UN secretary-general#;s representative for Somalia, Ahmadou Ould Abdallah, arrived in Hargeisa to broker reconciliation talks between Somaliland#;s three

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FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Food prices are arguably the most sensitive economic variable in India and the failed monsoon--rainfall was ##% less than the country#;s ##-year average--has led to shortages and rising price pressures ahead

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Even before the attack, the Indian foreign minister, S M Krishna, and his Pakistani counterpart, Shah Mehmood Qureshi, had failed to agree on the resumption of an official dialogue, which was suspended in the wake

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT In index terms, industrial production is still ##% lower than its #### peak. This situation is particularly concerning given that Mexico#;s decline in output began relatively early (June ####), implying that the weaker base

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT The moderation in the pace of export decline is largely explained by the matching trend in electronics, which accounted for ##.#% of all receipts in January-August. Electronics exports rose by #.#% month

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Rice was the crop most significantly damaged. In mid-October it was estimated that ###,### tonnes of palay (paddy) rice had been lost, equivalent to #.#% of the #### outturn, which will limit

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT However, the arrival on the scene of a senator, Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino, who is also the son of a recently deceased former president, Corazon Aquino, as the Liberal Party#;s candidate has altered the situation

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Also in early July the education minister, Muhammetgeldy Annaamanov, was sacked for "serious shortcomings" allegedly connected to a bribery scandal. The new deputy minister of rail transport, Rozimyrat Seyitkuliyev, appointed at the end of June

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Sizeable investment will be needed in the next few years just to keep output flat. Further investment, both in production and in export infrastructure, will be needed to raise exports to the level of ##bn

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Australian retail sales revenue fell by #.#% month on month in September, and by #.#% quarter on quarter over the third quarter as a whole, which suggests the consumer boom may finally be

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FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Tensions between the two groups had been growing since March, when al Shabab leaders shut down the two remaining independent radio stations operating in Kismayu, thereby leaving the militia#;s own station, Al- Andulus Islamic

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT The deadliest single attack to date on the Amisom force since it arrived in Somalia in #### occurred on September ##th ####, when two stolen UN vehicles packed with explosives were driven into the Amisom

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FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT The main reasons for concern are slowing rates of tax revenue and rising political pressure to extend large subsidy payments through public-works programmes and other state-sponsored schemes in the wake of a failed

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT The one-percentage-point increase in VAT will be the largest factor contributing to the rise in consumer price inflation (accounting for #.#- #.# percentage points); increases in public prices and adjustments to

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT The government will issue "catastrophe" bonds in the capital markets and transfer the proceeds to a trust which, in case of a natural disaster, will transfer the resources to the Fondo de Desastres Naturales (Fonden

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT According to the government, these measures would facilitate a ##% cost reduction and a ##% drop in execution time, covering projects in the National Development Plan that account for around Ps###bn (US$#.#bn). Once

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT For the first time, the PAN also won two mayoralties in the state, taking Balancan and Emiliano Zapata from the PRI. In Coahuila, preliminary results suggested that the PRI had won ## of the mayoralties

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT In its statement the BSP pointed to a recovery in domestic economic activity (with GDP in the second quarter of the year up by a seasonally adjusted #.#% on the first), which removed the

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT In September, Malaysia#;s merchandise exports fell at their fastest rate in four months--by ##.#% year on year--although performance in the third quarter was better than in the second quarter, at -##

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FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT The assassination of a suspected al-Qaida operative will have been welcomed in the US, but the operation will have done little to weaken al- Shabab#;s control over southern Somalia. The last similar US

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FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Manufacturing (##% of GDP) suffered in the second quarter as a result of lower domestic and foreign demand, shortages of agro-inputs and higher costs. Output fell by #.#% year on year in April

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Divisions within, as well as between, the two main parties will also complicate the political scene as politicians jostle for position ahead of the next election. In particular, Mr Kibaki will be obliged to stand

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Despite a widening of the trade deficit, India#;s balance-of-payments position did not deteriorate significantly, as remittances from Indians working overseas remained strong and software services exports declined at a much slower rate

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT The two part-privatisations are the first to be approved by the re-elected Congress-led government. Officials have hinted that part-privatisations of state-run firms such as the Steel Authority of India, a

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT On an annual basis, inflation fell to #.#% in September, the lowest rate since April ####. Core and non-core inflation was virtually the same (#.#% and #.#% respectively) but non-core

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Tropical storm Ondoy and typhoon Pepeng are not expected to have much of an effect on the rate of inflation. The impact of the storms has been confined to Luzon, where the price controls imposed

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Measures have been introduced in the aftermath of the two storms to boost the income of affected households. These included the early release of end-of-year bonuses (equivalent to a month of pay) for

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FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT EU officials are pushing Macedonia#;s prime minister, Nikola Gruevski, to resolve the long-running name dispute with Greece, so that in early December the European Council can announce a start-date for EU accession

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT The liquidation on October ##th of the chronically loss-making Luz y Fuerza del Centro (LyFC), a Mexican state power company that provides electricity to ##m residents in Mexico City and the surrounding states of

FROM EUROPEAN VOICE Leaders stress the benefits of reform for Europe; UK Conservatives drop referendum promise. By Toby Vogel Politicians across Europe welcomed today#;s signature of the Lisbon treaty by Vaclav Klaus, the president of the Czech Republic - except

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FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Outlook for ####-## Monthly review

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FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Outlook for ####-## Monthly review